A year before, when Jayalalithaa chose to contest from this constituency, she was almost certain of a victory with a massive majority. Since 2015, after the Karnataka High Court acquitted her and she won again from the same constituency, it got a VVIP tag, a promise to be turned into the number one constituency in the state in terms of welfare schemes and infrastructure.
With Jayalalithaa's passing, people of RK Nagar will now have to elect their new representative. RK Nagar is all set to go for bypolls on April 12.
A few days before, RK Nagar was the centre for launching its welfare slogan for the Edappadi K Palanisami led AIADMK government. Fishermen from the constituency were doled out compensation for their losses due to the oil spill. But, despite these welfare schemes and many others, winning RK Nagar will not be a cakewalk for either the OPS or Sasikala factions in the AIADMK. Sasikala’s rise to become the chief minister, O.Panneerselvam’s dissent, Sasikala's imprisonment and T.T.V.Dinakaran’s rise have only damaged the image of AIADMK at large.
The public anger against the ruling AIADMK is such that the women in Chennai have started coming out to the streets to protest, saying, “we voted only for Jayalalithaa and we did not vote for this government.”
Again for the AIADMK, the long distance communication from Bengaluru prison to the party cadres and the voters might not work, as this is the first time Sasikala as a leader will have to give instructions for her party to face the elections. And her nephew T.T.V.Dinakaran, who was appointed as the deputy general secretary just a few hours before she left for Bengaluru prison, sources say, might as well test the waters in RK Nagar. "The party will decide as to who will contest from the RK Nagar constituency. AIADMK, as usual, will sweep the polls,” said TTV Dinakaran during an ad hoc press conference, when asked about the chances for his candidature in the bypolls.
Yes, it is a test for the AIADMK under Dinakaran and also for the rebelling faction under O.Panneerselvam. OPS’s real strength, say the AIADMK seniors under Sasikala, will be known in this election. Keeping this in mind, both the factions will field their candidates. The constituency, which had gone for polls nine times, has elected a AIADMK candidate five times, a DMK and a Congrees candidates twice each. AIADMK’s presidium chairman E.Madhusoodhanan, who defected to the OPS camp, has won from this constituency in the earlier elections.
The other unanswered question is who would get the traditional two leaves symbol. With the OPS faction rebelling, saying that Sasikala cannot be the general secretary as per the party’s constitution and Sasikala sending a 70 page explanatory statement to the Election Commission of India, has put the party in a quandary. The OPS camp, which claims to be the cleanest in the AIADMK, may field an honest candidate, while the Sasikala faction might go with T.T.V.Dinakaran or field another local candidate who is familiar among the people of RK Nagar.
But what worries both the factions is the mystery shrouding Jayalalithaa’s death. While Jayalalithaa won by a margin of 1.5 lakh votes in 2015 and by 39,000 votes in 2016, this time the divided AIADMK cannot imagine a massive mandate like Jayalalithaa. While these two factions bank on the Amma aura, Jayalalithaa’s niece Deepa Jayakumar is also banking on the Amma factor. Leader of her newly found MGR Amma Deepa Peravai, Deepa had already announced her plans to contest the RK Nagar bypoll. But being a political novice and not having the experience of running a full-fledged political party, she may not be able to attract the voters like Jayalalithaa did.
While the AIADMK is a divided house, the DMK under M.K.Stalin will also sweat it hard in RK Nagar. Stalin’s choice last time in 2016 elections was Shimla Muthuchozhan, daughter in law of DMK veteran and RK Nagar resident Sarguna Pandian. This time too, sources say, Shimla will have a chance.
