House of cards

On February 20, Edappadi K. Palaniswami walked into the chief minister’s office, clad in his usual white dhoti and white shirt, with a dash of ash and vermillion on his forehead and a red thread tied around his right wrist. Four days before, the 62-year-old had taken charge as Tamil Nadu’s 13th chief minister, against the backdrop of the simmering public anger against V.K. Sasikala, AIADMK interim general secretary, who is serving a four-year sentence in Bengaluru for amassing wealth disproportionate to her known income.

It was Sasikala who had nominated Palaniswami to the post and asked party legislators to support him. By winning the trust vote in the assembly on February 18, he had passed his first test: to effectively neutralise the rebel camp led by his predecessor, O. Panneerselvam.

But it was clear that the challenges he would face would come not from the opposition, but from within the treasury benches, as he had to keep intact the flock of 122 legislators supporting him. More importantly, he needed to assuage the public anger against his government.

Palaniswami’s plan, as he entered the CM’s office, was to follow in the footsteps of his icon, former chief minister J. Jayalalithaa. He signed off on a slew of populist measures, including the shutdown of state-run liquor outlets and a scheme to distribute two-wheelers to women. Nothing like opening a bag of goodies to win the voters’ trust.

Palaniswami hails from Siluvampalayam, a small village near Edappadi in Salem district. He is influential in the Kongu belt (western Tamil Nadu) and is one of the more popular leaders belonging to the Gounder community. A veteran legislator, he had kept a low profile till 2011, when he became minister of public works in the Jayalalithaa government. He was part of Jayalalithaa’s nalvar ani, a four-member team that used to be the interface between her and the party.

Given the divide within the AIADMK, Palaniswami may not be able to control the cabinet like Jayalalithaa did. “Amma was our god and she knew everything. But Palaniswami is just another legislator, a party senior like us who rose through the ranks. If he deserves to be CM for his loyalty to Chinnamma [Sasikala] or the Mannargudi family [Sasikala’s relatives], then there are many like me who also deserve it,” said a senior legislator who did not want to be named. The legislator, who also hails from the Kongu belt, had expected a cabinet berth, but did not get it.

Palaniswami has kept Jayalalithaa’s cabinet largely intact, excluding only Panneerselvam and his supporter K. Pandiarajan from it. Pandiarajan’s education portfolio has been allocated to K.A. Sengottaiyan, whom Jayalalithaa had fired in 2012 as revenue minister. Sengottaiyan is now a trusted lieutenant of Sasikala, as he was instrumental in mustering support for her. “Palaniswami’s is a fragile government,” said a party veteran who does not belong to either of the camps. “It’s an artificial peace prevailing in the AIADMK. It might implode anytime.”

Palaniswami will have to balance the caste equations in the AIADMK, which is known to be a party supported by the influential Thevar community in southern Tamil Nadu. Though it has a sizeable number of MLAs from the Kongu belt, none of them have made it to the cabinet, except Palaniswami and Sengottaiyan. Again, the most dominant community in the party, the Gounders, to which Palaniswami belongs, is known for its hostility towards dalits in the western belt. These volatile equations, say sources, might turn against the new CM.

Empty coffers pose an even bigger challenge to Palaniswami, who holds the finance portfolio. His decision to shut down government-run liquor shops will cost the state 060 crore annually, at a time when it badly needs to increase its tax revenues. Also, with Jayalalithaa’s populist schemes already weighing down heavily on state finances, he would find it difficult to roll out more such measures.

“He is no equal to Jayalalithaa,” said T.R.B. Rajaa, a legislator belonging to the opposition DMK. “He might bring out schemes like she did, and the same Amma brand schemes might continue. But we need to wait and watch if all these are implemented properly.”

Adding to the pressure are civic polls, due in May. If the AIADMK fails to at least hold on to its existing number of seats, Palaniswami would find it difficult to continue his balancing act. “The biggest threat for him is not the economic situation, nor the opposition, but the massive pressure which is going to be exerted on him by Sasikala’s clan,” said political analyst R. Ramasubramanian. “There are at least six active power centres [in the party] and he has to balance all those. If he goes in support of a couple of power centres, the rest will rebel. Palaniswami is sitting on a sticky wicket and I believe this government will not last its term.”

Though she is in prison, Sasikala continues to send out instructions to Palaniswami. On February 20, as Palaniswami was signing the populist schemes, Sasikala’s nephew and AIADMK deputy general secretary T.T.V. Dinakaran was seen waiting on the premises of the Bengaluru central prison to meet his aunt. The following day, in a statement released from prison, Sasikala announced plans for celebrating Jayalalithaa’s birthday on February 24. Sengottaiyan has been entrusted with organising the celebrations.

The fact that his relatives are facing investigations in various cases also does not help Palaniswami’s cause. Last December, the CBI arrested Chandrakanth Ramalingam, brother-in-law of Palaniswami’s son Mithun Kumar, and six others after the income tax department seized Rs 5.17 crore worth of new Rs 2,000 notes. According to the CBI’s charge-sheet, Ramalingam conspired with some bank officials and businessmen to exchange demonetised notes in violation of Reserve Bank guidelines. Also, Subramanian Palanisamy, Mithun’s father-in-law, is said have close links to businessman Jagannathan Sekar Reddy, who is in CBI custody for his alleged involvement in money laundering cases.

For the time being, however, the new chief minister has begun his work with gusto. Unlike Panneerselvam, Palaniswami has chosen to work from the CM’s chamber and sit on Jayalalithaa’s chair. And he seems to be sticking to her way of doing things—be it in convening press conferences or attending cabinet meetings.

His party colleagues, however, are acutely aware that Palaniswami cannot replace Jayalalithaa. “He is no Amma to rule over us,” said a minister. “We have to work together. That is the agenda as of now.”

WITH PRATHIMA NANDAKUMAR