When India’s guided missile destroyer INS Chennai sailed into the Tamil Nadu coast for the first time, no one would have imagined that it would serve as a venue for further political realignments in Tamil Nadu. Three days later on April 18, the 163-metre-long warship, which was anchored off the Marina beach, not too far from the Jayalalithaa memorial, hosted around 100 MLAs and ministers of the ruling AIADMK. Unlike the time they spent together at the Koovathur resort a couple of months ago to ensure the primacy of their leader V.K. Sasikala, the legislators this time were exploring the options to keep Sasikala and her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran out of the party.
The invitation for the MLAs to visit the ship was extended by Chief Minister K. Palaniswami. Although the CM stayed away from the meeting, the MLAs and their family members took the opportunity to bond with each other and to talk freely about their future course of action.
Palaniswami got the idea of such a meeting from senior AIADMK leader and Lok Sabha deputy speaker M. Thambidurai. The two leaders had met twice on April 17. Emerging out of the meeting, Thambidurai, who was instrumental in getting Sasikala to lead the party, said, “There is only a difference of opinion among us. There is no split in the AIADMK.” Thambidurai reportedly took the lead in restoring unity in the party after meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi a couple of weeks ago.
Not coincidentally perhaps, there were income tax raids earlier this month targeting Sasikala loyalists. Following the raid at the residence of health minister C. Vijaya Bhaskar, the Election Commission postponed the RK Nagar byelection in which Dhinakaran was a candidate. There were allegations that the Dhinakaran camp was paying 04,000 per vote to ensure victory. The situation turned murkier as a middleman named Sukesh Chandrashekhar was arrested by the Delhi Police for allegedly trying to bribe Election Commission officials for the 'two leaves' symbol, which was frozen because of claims by rival factions. The Delhi Police subsequently registered a first information report against Dhinakaran under provisions of the Prevention of Corruption Act. A Delhi Police team was expected to reach Chennai on April 18 to serve summons to Dhinakaran, but the trip was postponed, sending the rumour mill to overdrive.
With Dhinakaran on the back foot, rebel leader and former chief minister O. Panneerselvam called for a merger of the rival factions even as Palaniswami was meeting Thambidurai. On the same day, senior cabinet ministers held an informal meeting and announced their decision to work together for the party's unity. But they were not willing to comment on the future of Sasikala and Dhinakaran. Sources said senior AIADMK leaders, including Thambidurai, were made aware that they would face problems if they continued their association with Sasikala's Mannargudi family. But they were also worried about retribution from the Sasikala camp.
Panneerselvam, meanwhile, spelt out his conditions for the merger. He wanted the Sasikala clan out and demanded an investigation into Jayalalithaa's death. “Sasikala's appointment as general secretary is against the rules of the AIADMK. Amma sent the [Sasikala] family out. She allowed Sasikala to return only after she tendered an apology and promised that she would not hold any party post,” said Panneerselvam.
As the political manoeuvres continued, Palaniswami made his intentions clear by bringing back senior IPS officer K.N. Sathiyamoorthy as inspector general in the intelligence wing of the state police. He was shunted out two months ago from the same division and was put on compulsory wait. Sathiyamoorthy is from Erode district, the main support base of Palaniswami. “Bringing him back means Palaniswami is trying to assert himself,” said a senior police officer. Palaniswami is likely to let Panneerselvam lead the party and also handle plum portfolios if he is allowed to retain the chief minister's post.
Dhinakaran’s predicament, Panneerselvam’s new conditions for merger and Palaniswami’s silence on the issue point towards the possibility of an AIADMK reunion minus the Sasikala clan. “This is a life and death issue for the Sasikala clan. The AIADMK has started thinking about the fate of the party under Sasikala. By joining hands, they believe that they can get rid of the Sasikala clan with support from the Modi government,” said political analyst R. Ramasubramanian.
With pressure mounting, Dhinakaran announced on April 19 his decision to stay away from the party. He also cancelled a meeting of party MLAs and district secretaries, which he had convened to prove his strength. His decision, according to sources, is the result of the legal challenges that he is facing. While MLAs supporting him said the BJP was behind the political instability, Dhinakaran refused to substantiate the charge.
The BJP, which is desperate to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu, is likely to use the opportunity to emerge as a key player. “The ultimate loser in the ongoing drama is the Sasikala family, but the beneficiary is neither Palaniswami nor Panneerselvam, it is the BJP,” said political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy. “The BJP is fishing in troubled waters,” he said.
The BJP had tried to woo the AIADMK even when Jayalalithaa was alive. Her impressive victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, winning 37 of 39 seats despite the Modi wave, prompted the BJP to redouble its efforts. After Jayalalithaa's death, it initially cosied up to Sasikala. But when the BJP realised that there was huge public anger against Sasikala, Panneerselvam rebelled and broke away. Though BJP leaders including Union Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu say that they want the AIADMK to stay together, it would be naive to believe that the BJP is a mere spectator in the unfolding political drama. With Sasikala in jail and Dhinakaran facing legal challenges, it would the perfect moment for the BJP to find an opening in Tamil Nadu.
