Politics is all about timing. Getting the timing right could be intentional. Or it could be a result of different things falling together in a neat little arrangement. For the Congress, a generational change, which has been underway for the last few years, is reaching its culmination. And the timing, it is felt in the party, is just right.
When Rahul made his speech in Berkeley, he surprised not just the BJP but his own partymen by hitting all the right notes when it came to taking on the Modi government. The BJP no doubt was jolted out of its sleep early on September 13 as the statements made by him in the speech began trickling in. Rahul's attack on Modi came at a time when the NDA government was facing the heat on the very issues that he raised.
The speech was seen as a turning point in the scheme of things. Rahul, for the first time ever, declared that he was ready for the top job in the party even as he positioned himself in an unhesitating manner as the main opponent of Modi. When he made the Berkeley speech, Rahul was at the cusp of taking over as Congress President.
The party says it will design the schedule of the election to the post of president of the party around the campaigning being undertaken by Rahul in Himachal Pradesh and poll-bound Gujarat. His campaign in Gujarat has been in focus for the issues that he has raised, to the constituencies that he has reached out to and the soft-Hindutva touch he has lent to his endeavour by visiting temples on a daily basis during the electioneering.
“That he will occupy the chair of the AICC president is a foregone conclusion. We have all been demanding it. The timing is determined by the internal system that is in place, which is the organisational elections,” said Mahila Congress President Sushmita Deb.
So Rahul's ascendency comes at a time when assembly elections are being held in two states, one of which is Modi's home turf Gujarat. And it also comes when there is just about one-and-a-half years to the next Lok Sabha elections. While earlier there was discontent within the party with the seeming delay in Rahul taking charge, with some leaders saying that he should have taken over as party chief immediately after the debacle in the general elections of 2014, it is now felt the timing of the event is just right. And from here on, it promises to become a 'Rahul vs. Modi' contest.
Congress leaders are enthused with Rahul's aggression and his choice of topics to take on the Modi government. “He is raising issues that strike a chord with the public. The farmers can identify with what he is saying. He is talking about the problems of the unemployed. Modi, on the other hand, is only playing to the galleries,” said AICC General Secretary B.K. Hariprasad.
The issues that Rahul has raised of late include joblessness, farmer distress, economic slowdown, the problems of traders, especially their inability to adjust to the GST regime, the impact of demonetisation and fuel prices. The party would also be hoping that the sentiment of intolerance being talked about would alienate sections such as dalits from the ruling party as also the fence sitters, who voted for Modi on the development plank and not for the Hindutva credentials of the BJP.
These issues, feel party leaders, will define the campaign for 2019. “What Mr Gandhi has been saying is not mere political rhetoric. The elections in 2019 will revolve around issues of employment, farmer distress, religious harmony, internal security,” said Congress leader Jaiveer Shergill.
However, it is an uphill task for Rahul to put the Congress on the path of revival. It is undoubtedly in crisis. It is in power in just a handful of states. Winning back Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh from the BJP remains a challenge. And even in Gujarat, where Rahul's campaign is getting a lot of attention, translating that into votes would be a challenge as the party is organisationally weak in the state and does not have a credible face to project as a chief ministerial candidate. It is up to Rahul to take advantage of the anti-incumbency against the BJP government. Defeating BJP in Modi's home state would have a huge symbolic value and would mean a big leg up to the party in the run up to the next Lok Sabha elections.
Rebuilding and renenergising the organisation even as Rahul deals with factionalism in the state units is going to be a challenge. Also, while he seems to be making the right noises, it is a huge task for him to get rid of his 'Pappu image', for which he has blamed Modi's social media army. He also has to find a balance between the seniors in the party, many of whom are wary of him, and young leaders, who he prefers, as he puts in place his own team at the helm of the party. Also, he has to gain the trust of not just his own partymen but that of leaders of other parties who are potential allies for 2019. Senior leaders of alliance partners such as Sharad Pawar of the NCP and Lalu Prasad Yadav of the RJD are still more comfortable dealing with Congress President Sonia Gandhi rather than Rahul.
As Rahul ends the suspense over whether he will take over as Congress President, he has to show exemplary vision and exceptional gumption in reviving his party and providing a credible challenge to Modi in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.
