Leap of faith: Rahul Gandhi at Shri Jagannathji Temple in Ahmedabad. During the Gujarat campaign, Rahul visited more than two dozen temples | PTI
On the morning of December 18, Congress president Rahul Gandhi, a fitness freak, did not skip his morning workout. The idea may have been to keep up a semblance of normalcy despite the atmosphere of tension on counting day.
The previous night, while discussing the possible results in Gujarat, a colleague told him that the Congress would get no more than 75 seats. As the results started coming in, Rahul was joined by mother Sonia and sister Priyanka at his Tughlaq Lane residence in New Delhi. According to sources, Rahul’s office got realtime updates from Gujarat. Soon, there were calls and messages about Congress candidates pulling through. “Congress won, brother,” he texted OBC leader Alpesh Thakore, when he informed Rahul about his victory.
The Congress does see a victory in the Gujarat defeat. AICC general secretary Ashok Gehlot, in charge of party affairs in Gujarat, said the Congress was the real winner. “The BJP will form government again. But it is not a BJP victory, and neither is it a loss for the Congress,” said Gehlot.
The party, as a closer analysis of the results shows, came very close to upsetting the BJP in Gujarat. In 16 seats, the Congress lost by a margin of less than 3,000 votes. If the four major cities of Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot are kept out, it won 71 seats against the BJP’s 53. The party’s vote percentage when compared with the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 increased from 33.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent, whereas that of the BJP dropped from 60 per cent to 49 per cent.
At a dinner he hosted for leaders of the opposition on the evening of December 17, Rahul said the results would be a blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP. And it was said not merely for effect. “The ground was ready for a Congress victory. We could have won this election,” said Congress leader Pawan Khera, who was involved in election management in Gujarat.
It was perhaps the best ever opportunity the Congress had to unseat the BJP, which has been ruling Gujarat for the last 22 years. The trading community, influential in the state, was extremely upset with demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax. The Patidars were up in arms, demanding reservation in education and jobs. The dalits and the OBCs were unhappy. The youth were disenchanted because of growing unemployment. The Congress ran a campaign based on these issues. The party tied up with the three young faces of the Patidar, dalit and OBC anger—Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakore.
“It was a well thought out strategy. We pinned Modiji down to issues of development. He could not respond to the issues we raised,” said Rajiv Satav, AICC secretary in charge of Gujarat.
The party took care not to polarise the electorate by keeping off issues such as the Gujarat riots of 2002, since it is established that polarisation helped the BJP. Rahul went on a temple run, visiting more than two dozen temples during the campaign, to appeal to a wider Hindu electorate.
It was a huge gambit for Rahul as he took on Modi directly in Gujarat, where the prime minister has a cult following. An ignominious defeat would have sullied his presidentship, and exposed him to further ridicule. However, even in defeat, he has got an enhanced stature, and the Congress has got a morale booster as it prepares to take on the BJP in a direct contest in the upcoming assembly elections.
As a campaigner, Rahul projected himself as the quiet voice of sanity as against the high decibel and aggressive outreach of Modi. “We have lost the battle but not the war. The BJP should stop dreaming about a Congress-mukt Bharat now,” said Randeep Surjewala, head of the Congress communications department.
And the Congress has found in Gujarat a template on which it can contest elections. “Rahulji says every election has to be taken seriously. We can expect the same level of strategising in other states as we did in Gujarat,” said Satav.
A major takeaway for the Congress from Gujarat is that the issues of joblessness and farmers’ distress are potent ammunition against Modi. However, the results also show that cities remain the party’s weak spot. Gujarat was also a reminder to Rahul of the main problem facing the Congress in a large swathe of the country—a weak organisation and an uninspiring state leadership. “Rahulji’s directions to us are clear. We have to keep raising people’s issues and put pressure on the government,” said Rajasthan Congress president Sachin Pilot.
Rahul himself will have to keep up a sustained attack on the Modi dispensation, inside and outside Parliament. He is expected to keep punching holes in Modi’s construct of a pro-development and anti-corruption regime. “Modiji has a credibility problem.... What he says, his forces, his organisation repeat that. But the country is not listening to it. The Gujarat election has shown this. And you will see this very clearly in the coming times,” said Rahul, in his first comments on the poll verdict.
Even as the next Lok Sabha elections look to be a Rahul vs Modi contest, he will need allies at the national level—just as the Congress allied with disparate forces in Gujarat. Rahul has to build a rapport with leaders of the opposition parties like his mother Sonia did before the Lok Sabha elections in 2004.
Gujarat results indicate that dissatisfaction with the Modi regime has begun to set in. “The tide is turning for the prime minister and the BJP. Modiji’s home state has made this clear. The anger and dissatisfaction on the ground was so palpable,” said Mahila Congress president Sushmita Dev, MP.
The Congress even expects the big fight with Modi to happen earlier than scheduled, anticipating that he might not wait till May 2019 and advance the general elections to late 2018, when several assembly elections are due.
Rahul has to be prepared for this and many other tricks that Modi may have up his sleeve.
