The unwritten 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) between India and Pakistan, has all but collapsed, thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
Modi's tough stand in dealing with Pakistan along the LoC and prevent infiltration into Kashmir has resulted in the disruption of the unwritten peace deal that had brought cheers to people living on both sides of the de facto border and helped improve the situation in the Kashmir valley.
Security analysts attribute the change in attitude to the 'Doval doctrine' conceived by the NSA to deal with Pakistan. Doval envisages “offensive defence” that entails massive retaliation to attacks and provocations by Pakistan through his doctrine.
Apart from extensive retaliation, the new doctrine also authorises the army to take punitive actions against Pakistan. Security analysts in Pakistan, including retired army officers, have admitted that the Indian Army has adopted a war-like posture against Pakistan that has proved costly to the Pakistan army and civilians living in PoK.
The neighbouring country's problem is complicated by the fact that the Indian deployment along the LoC and IB in Jammu and Kashmir is twice in number—125,000—to that of Pakistan's. India also has the tactical advantage of having more heights under its control on the mountainous LoC than Pakistan. The Indian Army is also better equipped than Pakistan.
The situation, however, is not one-sided. Pakistan also commands heights in some key sectors including the Poonch, Hajipeer, etc where they dominate the Indian Army positions. To take on India's advantage of more troops and weapons along the LoC, Pakistan has resorted to asymmetrical methods to get even with India.
They are making good use of the specialised border action team (BATs) that sneak into the Indian side of the LoC and target Indian patrols at vulnerable points. The bodies of Indian troops have been found mutilated in some attacks.
Moreover, Pakistan also uses jihadi elements to carry BAT actions inside India. In addition, the Pakistan army has used snipers to target Indian troops to good effect. The snipers have caused more damage than guns and shells, sources said.
Often, Indian response has been massive retaliation. The army has also used heavy artillery and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) to target Pakistan's forward posts. It has also effectively curtailed the movement of Pakistani troops in vulnerable sectors like the Neelam Valley.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh has reiterated that the Indian troops have been asked not to count bullets while retaliating against Pakistan. This shift in the policy has completely freed the army commanders from restricted retaliation to massive fire assaults against the Pakistan army.
The strategy change also aims to maintain pressure on the Pakistan army and increase its anxieties. This has worked in India's favour. But at the same time, this has also resulted in Pakistan shifting its strategy, especially, after the September 18 surgical strikes in PoK last year. This has resulted in the Pakistan army suffering more casualties than the Indian Army.
The Pakistan army has refused to divulge the exact number of soldiers killed in Indian action on the LoC and IB.
Meanwhile, the civilians on the Pakistan side of the LoC have also borne the brunt of Indian actions. As per Pakistan's Inter Service Press Relations (ISPR), more than 60 civilians have been killed in Indian firing and shelling in PoK this year. On the Indian side, more than 300 incidents of firing and shelling along the LoC and IB have resulted in the death of 27 people, including 14 security personnel.
On February 1, Chief of Army Staff General Bipin Rawat had stressed the need for high level of alertness and vigil along the LoC. The next day, Pakistan launched heavy mortars and fired at forward Indian posts in the Nowshera sector. India troops retaliated to silence them.
On March 9, army trooper Deepak Jagannath was killed when Pakistani troops violated ceasefire in Poonch. The cross LoC bus was suspended after the Trade Centre complex was hit by Pakistani shells on March 12 and March 13. A school building and another structure at Chakkan-da-Bagh in Poonch were also affected by the shelling.
After a brief lull, firing resumed on March 19 in the Bhimber Gali and Balakote sectors of Poonch. Later, a soldier was killed on March 30 after Pakistan targeted army positions in Mendher.
After some respite, there was firing again on April 5 but no one was injured or killed. Eight days later, there was a heavy exchange of fire in Nowshera sector because of which many civilians were confined to their houses.
Two persons were killed on May 13 and three others were injured when Pakistani army fired mortar bombs and heavy caliber guns in Rajouri. According to defence spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Manish Mehta, the army retaliated “strongly and effectively”. Deputy Commissioner of Rajouri Shahid Iqbal Choudhary had then said the Pakistani troops targeted Jangarh, Bhawani, and Laam belts. The next day, the shelling was more intense and caused heavy damages to buildings and forced evacuation of 1,000 border dwellers.
“More than seven villages have been affected,” he had said. On May 23, Army took 'punitive action' against Pakistani troops and infiltrating militants in Nowshera sector and targeted nearly a dozen Pakistani posts and bunkers. About a week later on May 29, special forces of the army targeted Pakistani troops along the LoC in Uri sector in Baramulla, killing two and injuring at least four.
This was soon followed by response from Pakistan on June 1, targeting Indian positions in Krishna Ghati and Nowshera sectors in which a civilian and a General Reserve Engineering Force (GREF) labourer were killed and four others were injured. A GREF vehicle, engaged in construction work at Balnoi Forward, was directly hit by a mortar shell fired by the Pakistan army, resulting in injuries to four workers, including the driver, one of whom, identified as Mohammad Parwaiz, later succumbed to his injuries. Mohammad Nizam-ud-Din, a BSF Havaldar, was also injured in the shelling.
The Indian Army soon retaliated with offensive action against the Pakistani troops at Bhimber and Battal sectors killing at least six Pakistani troopers and injuring five others. This was the third fierce retaliatory action undertaken by the Indian troops. Soon, Pakistan summoned India’s Deputy High Commissioner J.P. Singh in Islamabad to protest the casualties suffered by its army.
On June 16, Pakistan resorted to heavy mortar shelling and firing in Nowshera sector killing soldier Naik Bakhtawar Singh and injuring two soldiers, one of whom succumbed to his injuries later.
Amid all the tension and killings, it is worthwhile to note that Indian and Pakistani army officials exchanged sweets at Chakan-Da-Bagh cross-LoC point in Poonch District, while BSF and Rangers also celebrated Eid jointly at various places along the IB.
Firing and retaliation from both the sides stand to continue to date and provocations from the Pakistan army along the LoC have become a routine affair these days. Often, the civilians on both sides of the LoC are left stranded. The firing has also triggered fresh migration in Nowshera and surrounding areas, including that of schools.
