On February 18, Nationalist Congress Party chief and former Union minister Sharad Pawar lashed out at Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, saying that power had gone to his head. “Someone who doesn’t even know Maharashtra and Mumbai well is going around saying there will be change, ha maza shabda aahe [this is my word],” said Pawar.
Five days later, as the civic poll results arrived, it turned out that Fadnavis knew Mumbai and Maharashtra rather well. Led by him, the BJP decimated the NCP and the Congress, pocketing eight of ten municipal corporations. Clearly, the voters trusted Fadnavis more than Pawar. The BJP got majority even in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporations, traditional strongholds of the Pawar family.
The BJP’s victories in the municipal and zilla parishad polls are remarkable considering that the opposition had launched a massive attack on the Fadnavis government over demonetisation and other issues. They simply failed to stop the BJP juggernaut, even as Fadnavis, in rally after rally, highlighted demonetisation as the Centre’s move to curb black money. Fighting without the support of the Shiv Sena, with which it shares power in the state, the BJP won majority in Ulhasnagar, retained Nagpur and Akola, snatched Solapur and Amravati from the Congress, Nashik from the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, and Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad from the NCP. It gave a tough fight to the Shiv Sena in Mumbai to grab the second position with 82 seats. The only municipal corporation where the BJP performed poorly was Thane. But there, too, it raised its tally from eight seats in 2012 to 23.
The Sena managed to perform well in its bastions of Mumbai and Thane, overcoming anti-incumbency and the BJP’s rivalry, thanks mainly to the aggressive leadership of its president Uddhav Thackeray. While Fadnavis campaigned all across Maharashtra, Uddhav focused on Mumbai and Thane. The Sena won 84 seats in Mumbai and 68 in Thane. In Mumbai, despite the breakup of its alliance with the BJP, it won nine seats more than it did in 2012. It was proof enough that when cornered, the Sena still has the ability to launch ferocious counterattacks and score tactical victories, however mighty the opponent may be.
According to Fadnavis, the BJP did so well because it could convince voters that his government stood for transparency, honesty and development. “This has been a never-before kind of victory, especially in Mumbai,” he said. “We fought the election with transparent administration as our main plank and people have shown faith in us. In Mumbai, we could contest only 195 of 227 seats, and we have won 82.”
The impressive performance in Mumbai has not come easy though. It has cost the BJP a trusted ally. The Shiv Sena had been the aggressive elder brother in the saffron brotherhood, which was forged by the BJP’s Pramod Mahajan and the Sena’s Balasaheb Thackeray, both of whom are no more. When the BJP called off its alliance with the Sena on the eve of assembly polls in 2014, the Sena leadership was both stunned and deeply hurt. It hurt the Sena leaders more when the BJP won 122 seats, while the Sena could manage only 64. After sitting uneasily in the opposition benches for a month, the Sena joined the Fadnavis-led BJP government and bagged 12 ministries.
But not a month has passed without the two parties having a public spat. THE WEEK had reported earlier on how the survival of the state government would depend on the outcome of elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, as the Sena gives utmost importance to controlling Mumbai. Leaders as well as workers of both the parties did not want any sort of alliance in the municipal elections. So, the Sainiks were jubilant when Uddhav declared on January 26 that the Sena would never have a pre-poll alliance with any party henceforth. “We were rotting in this alliance for the past 25 years,” said Uddhav to loud cheers from party workers. What followed was a vicious campaign in which both sides vowed to finish each other.
As the votes were being counted on February 23, it appeared initially that the Shiv Sena had crushed the BJP. The Sena looked set to win 100 seats, and the BJP only 60. But the picture changed drastically in the final rounds of counting.
So tough was the fight that the BJP won its 82nd seat thanks to lots drawn by a four-year-old girl, as candidates of both the Sena and the BJP won equal votes in ward number 220. Had the two partners contested the elections together, they could have won more than the 166 seats in the 227-seat BMC, that they have won separately, decimating Congress (31 seats), NCP (9), and MNS (7).
Neither the Shiv Sena nor the BJP can rule the BMC on their own. The Sena is 30 seats short of 114 needed for majority. Uddhav, however, has announced that the next mayor of Mumbai would again be a Sainik. “Not just the mayor, but the next chief minister of Maharashtra as well,” he said.
The Sena is thinking of electing its mayor without support from the BJP. Four independents have declared their support to the Sena, which has also opened backchannel talks with the MNS, the NCP and the Congress.
The mayor will be elected on March 9, a day after polling ends in the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress is unlikely to reveal its mind before the UP elections are over. “The Congress cannot even consider offering support to the Shiv Sena in Mumbai as long as it is in power in the state and at the Centre,” said state Congress president Ashok Chavan. The Congress has the option of abstaining from voting, after announcing that it will support neither the BJP nor the Sena. That way, it can save its face and the Sena can have its mayor in Mumbai.
There is also a chance, however slim it may seem, of the Sena and the BJP coming together after a game of ‘wait and watch’, as they did in Kalyan-Dombivali municipal corporation a year ago. But the two parties had a better relationship then.
Sena ministers told Uddhav on January 26 that they were willing to resign from government if he ordered so. But a sizeable chunk of Sena legislators feel that any move to join hands with the Congress would backfire, especially if it is aimed at toppling the Fadnavis government.
A senior Congress leader told THE WEEK that his party’s priority should be to keep the BJP from coming to power in the BMC. “If the BJP gains control of the BMC, it will have immense resources at its hand,” said the leader. “Also, it will be for the first time since Manohar Joshi that the chief minister and mayor will be from the same party. So, as an opposition, our strategy is focused on letting the Shiv Sena have its mayor without directly supporting them.”
On February 27, Fadnavis cancelled the crucial cabinet meeting that is held before the budget session of the state legislature. The Sena’s antipathy to the BJP is now so strong that it wants the opposition to move a no confidence motion against the state government during the budget session, starting on March 6. The daggers, drawn already, appear all set to taste blood.
