LDF sweeps Kerala local body elections; major boost for CM Vijayan

Kerala turned 'red' today as the ruling Left Democratic Front swept the local body polls in one of the most politicised elections held in the state. The results are still trickling in but the Left's dominant win may well be an indicator that the gold smuggling scandal and several other corruption charges levelled against the state government, particularly Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, have not made the kind of impact among voters, as the Opposition hoped.

As per the latest update from the State Election Commission, the LDF has won five of the six Corporations, 11 of the 14 District Panchayats, 108 Block Panchayats of 152, and 514 of 941 Grama Panchayats. The only consolation for the Congress-led UDF is that it has won more municipalities—45 out of 86.

“The verdict is a clear approval for the good initiatives of the government. It clearly shows that the common man did not fall prey to the false allegations levelled against the government,'' CM Vijayan said. He added that the results also show the secular character of the state. “Those who thought that the Left could be finished by attacking us with false propaganda found themselves proved wrong by the electorate.”

Congratulating the state government, CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury said that the results reflect the appreciation the people of Kerala have for the manner in which the LDF government handled the devastating flood and the COVID-19 pandemic. “That the people of Kerala did not fall for the false propaganda perpetrated by the BJP and supported by the Congress is a great appreciation for the Left government,” he said.

If one looks at the emerging results, LDF's victory can be attributed to positive votes for the government and also some clever electoral engineering by the LDF, which included the splitting of the Christian vote bank which had been solidly behind the UDF till date. The most crucial aspect seems to be the entry of Kerala Congress (M) into the LDF fold, which helped the Front bag a huge chunk of Christian votes. Also, the fact that it could win the trust of the Jacobites—a strong section among the Syrian Christians—also helped the LDF.

At the same time, Congress's decision to include Jamaat-e-Islami-backed Welfare Party into the UDF antagonised both Christians and a section of Muslims who are against Jamaat-e-Islami. Both these factors played a crucial role in ensuring LDF's dominance.

Another pointer that has emerged in the election is that the BJP's gain in many pockets across the state has been more at the expense of Congress than the Left. Though it did not match up to the claims it had made regarding “capturing'' Kerala, the BJP has certainly managed to make an impact in both city and rural areas. It has won two municipalities—Palakkad and Panthalam, from where the agitation over the entry of women into the Sabarimala shrine following a Supreme Court order, had started. While it has pushed Congress candidates into third place in many places, it has opened accounts in several Grama Panchayats and municipalities, including Left-bastion Kannur.

“Congress is no longer the main opposition in Kerala, while we have emerged as the strong contender to the CPI(M),” said BJP state president K. Surendran. “If the UDF has managed to win at least this much, it is only because of the IUML. Otherwise, Congress would have been nowhere in the picture,” he said.

The UDF leaders, however, maintained that the voter base of the UDF is still intact. “We could not win the expected numbers because the anti-incumbency against the LDF government has not reflected properly in this election. The edge the LDF has got this time will not be reflected in the coming Assembly elections,'' said Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala.

What has added salt to the wounds of the Congress is the fact that it lost most of its strong bastions like Kottayam, Pathanamthitta and Kochi. Also, the Left won the wards of all the main Congress leaders including KPCC president Mullappally Ramachandran, Chennithala and former CM Oommen Chandy, while the BJP won the panchayat ward of former union defence minister A.K. Antony.

LDF's victory is bound to be a morale booster to the Pinarayi Vijayan government as it was being hounded by the opposition over the gold smuggling scandal, involving the former private secretary of the CM, M. Sivasankar. Also, the fact that it is for the first time that a ruling government has won the panchayat elections in the last 30 years, too, will boost the confidence of the LDF.

According to writer Zachariah, the elections give a clear indication on where the politics of Kerala is heading. “That the people of Kerala opted for the LDF government even as it was being hounded by all the Central agencies existing in this country, would certainly be a morale booster for the Pinarayi Vijayan government,'' he said.

Writer Shajahan Madampat, too concurred. “The results send a clear message that the Malayali mind still largely remains impervious to Hindutva venom. It also makes very clear that the people of Kerala see through the games of the national agencies like the NIA and ED which is hounding the state government.”

The victory of the Left government is bound to boost the image of CM Vijayan who was being attacked from all corners ever since Sivasankar became linked to the gold smuggling scandal. “If the LDF had lost the elections, the entire blame would have been on Pinarayi Vijayan. Because of the same reason, the credit for the victory also goes to him,'' said Pramod Kumar, a political observer.

But, can the results of the local body elections be considered as an indicator of which way the state will swing in the assembly elections, which are to be held in four months? “If one goes by history of Kerala polls, the Left has reasons to smile as the winner of local bodies have always won the next assembly elections except in 1991,” said Pramod Kumar. “But four months is a long time in politics.”