The election result in just one constituency in a state cannot be considered as an indication of the general political trend in that state. In Tamil Nadu, where caste, money power and regionalism hold great sway over elections, each election result could be regarded as isolated occurrences.
Nonetheless, the results of the byelection held recently in R.K. Nagar assume significance on more than one count. For the first time in the history of Tamil Nadu, an Independent candidate won; after many decades a candidate of the ruling party tasted defeat in a by-election; and, for the first time in three decades, a candidate of the AIADMK was beaten in the constituency.
The historic victory of T.T.V. Dhinakaran in R.K. Nagar is sounding alarm bells in the AIADMK camp. The constituency, named after former president Dr S. Radhakrishnan, has taught the DMK and the BJP a few lessons.
Who will have the ‘two leaves’?
The All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has always been a crowd that revolves around a charismatic leader. Party members go to political meetings like they go for a movie. The AIADMK, which had revolved around M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa, was rendered leaderless since December 2016 with the demise of Jayalalithaa.
V.K. Sasikala, O. Panneerselvam and Edappadi Palaniswamy attempted to fit into Jayalalithaa’s shoes, but in vain. Finally, Panneerselvam and Palaniswamy together tried to lead the party and the party managed to get back its ‘two leaves’ symbol. However, the AIADMK led by the Panneerselvam-Palaniswamy combine lost in the byelection despite the ruling party having used all means in its command.
The verdict in R.K. Nagar clearly indicates that T.T.V. Dhinakaran possesses the appealing personality that the party’s rank and file expect. At present, Dhinakaran enjoys the support 18 MLAs. These MLAs were disqualified by the assembly speaker, and a case regarding this is being considered by the court. A total of 50 leaders who were offered tickets by Sasikala had won in the last assembly elections.
Dhinakaran’s entry into the assembly is likely to change the stance of these 50 MLAs. Dhinakaran might even take over the reins of the party with the blessings of the Panneerselvam-Palaniswamy factions. However, the corruption charges against the ‘Mannargudi mafia’ will turn out to be a major obstacle in Dhinakaran’s way.
Rainbow alliance turns colourless
The DMK in Tamil Nadu was seen like the CPM in Kerala which gets votes come what may. However, this ‘myth’ was debunked in the R.K. Nagar bypolls. In its worst electoral performance since the R.K. Nagar constituency came into being, the DMK lost the deposit. Even while the DMK argues that Dhinakaran won with money power, it is a dangerous trend that even the most faithful followers of a party could be swayed by money power.
A move to hold mid-term elections to the assembly would have been relevant had the DMK won in R.K. Nagar, close on the heels of the court clearing the DMK leaders in the 2G scam case. The DMK leadership would find it tough explaining to the cadres as to why the party suffered an ignominious defeat in R.K. Nagar despite the support and campaigning it got from the UPA member-parties Congress and Muslim Leagues as well as from the MDMK, VCK, and the Left parties. At the same time, the DMK is justified in describing the defeat as an isolated phenomenon. In 2010, when the DMK was in power, the party had won the by-election held at Pennagaram, while the AIADMK had lost the deposit. The AIADMK came to power in the assembly elections held in 2011.
M.K. Stalin’s ability to lead the DMK after M. Karunanidhi is being questioned by Azhagiri, Stalin’s brother. More dissenting voices are likely to arise from the party and its allies.
BJP’s game plan
Though the BJP claims that it has 50 lakh members in Tamil Nadu, the party’s state vice president who contested in R.K. Nagar got less votes than did NOTA. Tamil Nadu is on the BJP’s radar for the next Lok Sabha elections. It has been proved again that the BJP badly needs the support of a dravida party. Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting Karunanidhi at the latter’s residence sends out a clear signal that the BJP has kept its doors wide open.
The DMK, even while softening its stand towards Narendra Modi, has not given any indication to the effect that it would sever its alliance with the Congress. Though the BJP’s natural ally is the AIADMK, the BJP is of the view that the AIADMK is not an ally that can help win elections since the latter could not even keep Jayalalithaa’s seat. Hence, the BJP might try to bring Dhinakaran to its fold as it did earlier to unite Panneerselvam and Palaniswamy. Anyway, the BJP will not be contesting alone in Tamil Nadu in the next Lok Sabha elections.
Waiting for a Thalaivar?
Two things that happened in Tamil Nadu recently are bound to discourage those movie stars who are waiting in the wings to enter politics – the court verdict in the 2G Spectrum case and the results of the R.K. Nagar byelection. The main slogan of the movie stars who are raring to enter politics, including Kamal Haasan, is anti-corruption. The judgment in the 2G case has taken the sheen off the anti-corruption mantra. These stars had hoped to cash in on the chaotic situation in the AIADMK arising out of the absence of a strong leader. Now, the entry of Dhinakaran has dashed those hopes.
With Dhinakaran’s ‘pressure cooker’ gaining supremacy over ‘two leaves’ and ‘the rising sun’, the golden era of election symbols in Tamil politics is coming to an end. Dhinakaran’s victory also stresses that money is more powerful than political loyalties. It was presumed that the storm that started in Tamil politics with the demise of Jayalalithaa would subside with the results of the R.K. Nagar byelection. Instead, a new storm is brewing with Dinakaran’s victory.
All these notwithstanding, is Tamil Nadu looking forward to the arrival of a Thalaivar from the field of cinema? Probably yes, and that may be the reason why any news about the entry of Rajinikanth or Kamal Haasan into politics are hits. Rajinikanth is scheduled to announce his political stand on December 31. What Kamal Haasan has in mind will be released in the New Year.
(This article was originally published in Malayala Manorama)
