National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, who is also the Special Representative for the India-China border talks, is in Beijing to attend the BRICS NSA summit scheduled to be held on July 27 and 28. His presence on Chinese soil comes at a time when India's border standoff with China in Sikkim's Doklam has entered the second month with little signs of abatement.
If Doval gets an opportunity to have bilateral talks with his counterpart Yang Jiechi on the sidelines of the summit, he will not waste another second to raise the border issue and put his best foot forward to try and end the impasse.
"It is highly unlikely that Doval will not raise the issue if he gets an opportunity to have a private word with his Chinese counterpart. But what is important to observe is what kind of an approach will the NSA display?" said a senior security official.
China has been playing tough as far as border talks are concerned. Beijing had said it would not hold talks unless and until India withdraw its troops from Doklam. However, with the Indian NSA now in their territory, there are mixed signals on the possibility of a bilateral discussion where the border issue is expected to crop up.
Notably, Doval has made it clear over the last several months since the Narendra Modi-government came to power that India's territorial integrity is paramount and a "defensive offensive " approach will be adopted when it comes to the nation's policy of guarding its international borders. Such a policy has not only been displayed but translated into some action when India launched the covert commando strike in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir to avenge the Uri killings of 2016.
Will the policy be any different from a "defensive offensive" on the China border remains to be seen, said an official.
New Delhi's move to openly assist Bhutan to keep the Chinese PLA at bay in Doklam—the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction—has displayed its grit to Beijing. But whether India is able to match its military grit with its diplomacy remains to be seen.
For political observers, it is a time to test the waters and Doval should do just that. Rather than adopting an unwavering aggressive approach, the NSA might have to show some diplomacy and craftsmanship to send the right signals to his counterpart, said an official.
Interestingly, this is an area that had been mastered by his predecessors like Shiv Shanker Menon and Brajesh Mishra.
"There may be no immediate solution in sight given the fact that Chinese president Xi Jingping is preparing for the biggest political event—the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party likely to be held in early November in Beijing. For Jingping, it is a time when he has to keep the factions of Jiang Zemin and his former mentor Hu Jintao at bay during the politburo meet. The border tension with India gives him that leeway and allows him an opportunity to emerge bigger and stronger," said a senior intelligence official.
Doval will have to manoeuver his way through Beijing's military ambitions and political compulsions. Definitely, testing times for Doval.
