Pakistan army chief Gen Bajwa to step down, but will he?

Arguably the most powerful man in Pakistan, the commander of Pakistan’s 6,00,000-strong army, General Qamar Javed Bajwa—slated to retire by November 29—has recently indicated that he would not be seeking an extension for the top job.

While the general’s assertion has opened up floodgates of speculations—and wild imaginations—as to who his successor may be, it is easier said than done. Because the good general has not said he would not take the job if offered another extension.

“Gen Bajwa may not seek but if he is given, will he say no? Therefore, Bajwa’s continuation is a possibility that cannot be ruled out,” says Ashok Behuria, a leading expert on Pakistan.

“Imran Khan is a hugely popular individual in Pakistan who has built up a movement. But he and his coterie are impairing Pakistan’s relationship with the US, which is not liked by the Army. And the Army cannot afford to antagonise the US which it fears will only benefit the Indians. So the India factor is a key one even when it comes to deciding who becomes the COAS (chief of army staff),” says Behuria by way of explanation. Behuria is also a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar IDSA, a leading Indian think-tank.

A new chief might be a risk the Army may be averse to taking as he will go by the public mood, which at the moment is favourable to Khan.

That way, Bajwa is a much more seasoned man.

In Pakistan, the Supreme Court ruled that an Army chief can cling to the military chair till the age of 68. Bajwa is 66. Whether he gets an extension of another two years or gets two successive one-year extensions till 68 is also a talk doing the rounds.

While he is at it, the names of at least seven accomplished lieutenant generals are doing the rounds as well—Lt Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Lt Gen Asim Munir, Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, Lt Gen Azhar Abbas, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, Lt Gen Nauman Mehmood Raja and Lt Gen Mohammad Amir. The first two are believed to be the frontrunners.

All of them are known to be sound military professionals with deep understanding of the military dynamics along the Line of Control (LoC) with India and in Kashmir besides in the restive and terrorist-infested regions of Waziristan.

On Bajwa's retirement, Gen Munir is to be the senior-most among all officers. He had been the ISI chief for eight months in 2018 while Gen Mirza occupies the all-important position of Corps Commander in Rawalpindi.

Gen Raja is the president of the National Defence University (NDU) since November 2021. After having served as the ISI chief for about two-and-a-half years since June 2019, Gen Hameed is now the corps commander at Bahawalpur.

On August 19, 2019, Bajwa, nearly three months before he was to retire, got a three-year extension as Pakistan army chief.

A source at the Indian military establishment nails the issue: “Usually it is the Army chief’s favourite who gets the job. Because he has to make a recommendation to the PM. What makes it difficult is that there are no clear rules of succession in Pakistan. It is largely a pick-and-choose affair. And therefore, it is anyone’s guess who gets to sit on the COAS’ chair.

Two home truths remain: First, whoever becomes the Pak military chief, Imran Khan’s shadow will loom large on the horizon for at least two years to come. Second, Pakistan’s India policy—and the prevailing low-intensity conflict—will trudge on without a break.