Exit polls: Another thumping victory for Modi, trends indicate

Modi's star has still not faded

rahul-gandhi-narendra-modi-pm Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi after paying tribute to the martyrs of 2001 Parliament attack on its 17th anniversary, at Parliament House in New Delhi | PTI

The 2019 general elections, which wrapped up in seven phases on Sunday, witnessed the most acerbic campaign in recent times. The counting of votes will take place on May 23, marking—one way or another—a tectonic shift in Indian politics. Was this a wave election? Were there silent undercurrents that journalists, politicians and pollsters missed? Which way did the minorities lean? Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal set tongues wagging, when, at the end of Delhi polls, he claimed that Muslims voted in the last minute for the Congress, a statement which seemed a concession of sorts. “Until 48 hours before polling, it seemed like all seven seats will come to AAP,” Kejriwal said, reported The Indian Express. “But at the last moment, the complete Muslim vote got shifted to Congress. We are trying to figure out what happened.” Was that a nationwide phenomenon? Do the scared minorities see Congress as the only national bulwark against the BJP's muscular Hindutva?

Republic-CVoter gave NDA around 287 seats, UPA 128, and other parties around 127. Times Now-VMR gave NDA 306 seats, UPA 132, and other parties 104. News24-Today’s Chanakya gave NDA around 340, UPA around 70 and other parties around 133. NewsNation gave NDA 282-290 seats, UPA 118-126 and other parties around 130-138

The initial trends point to a 2014 repeat. Republic-CVoter gave NDA around 287 seats, UPA 128, and other parties around 127. Times Now-VMR gave NDA 306 seats, UPA 132, and other parties 104. News24-Today’s Chanakya gave NDA around 340, UPA around 70 and other parties around 133. News Nation gave NDA 282-290 seats, UPA 118-126 and other parties around 130-138. However, the exit poll numbers, in previous elections, have been off the mark. In 2014, when the BJP led by Narendra Modi, managed to win 272 seats on its own, the numbers were off. Many, like the ABP-AC Nielsen poll, had NDA at 281, but only Today’s Chanakya predicted a complete majority for the BJP. In 2004, they all predicted a thumping comeback for the Vajpayee-led NDA government, on the back of the India Shining campaign, but went woefully off the mark as UPA came to power. So, the numbers can, and should, be taken with a pinch of salt.

But, what are the issues that captured the voters' imagination this time? A pre-poll analysis conducted by Lokniti-CSDS in March 2019 claimed that economy seemed to be a polarising factor—one-thirds (34 per cent) described it as being good while only one in every four (25 per cent) viewed it as being bad. Before Narendra Modi came to power, only one in every five (19 per cent) respondents had described the economy as being in good shape. When it came to employment, the voter perception was against the ruling party—close to half (46 per cent) said jobs had gone down and one in every four (25 per cent) were of the opinion that they had increased. Rural and farmer distress might not be the electoral trump card the opposition hopes it would be. When asked what would be the most important issue for them while voting, only about 6 per cent farmers reported specific farming-related issues as their most important problem. The rest of the farmers stated voting issues similar to the ones stated by non-farmers, the Lokniti-CSDS survey claimed. Issues like Balakot, too, could be a wild card for PM Modi: four of five respondents were found to have heard or read about the Balakot strike, and among them preference for Modi as the next Prime Minister was found to be at 46 per cent. On the other hand, among those who weren’t aware of the Balakot strike, Modi’s acceptability was way lower at just 32 per cent.

If the BJP is incapable of ratcheting up the majority on its own, it is widely considered that PM Modi will face a lot of opposition from within the party and the larger RSS. And, will the BJP be able to take forward alliance partners? TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu meeting with Congress president Rahul Gandhi, on Sunday, was watched keenly by political observers. Further, BSP chief Mayawati—part of a crucial opposition coalition in Uttar Pradesh—will also reportedly meet Congress leaders including Sonia Gandhi on Monday.