Did Modi govt deduce Balakot fatalities from number of 'active' mobile phones?

Lack of clarity on the casualty figures have put the government on the defensive

Union home minister Rajnath Singh | PTI Union home minister Rajnath Singh | PTI

Over the past week after the Balakot air strike, lack of clarity on the casualty figures have put the Narendra Modi government on the defensive. While the government is yet to release an official figure, BJP chief Amit Shah raked up a controversy with his claim that "more than 250" were killed in the IAF air strike in Balakot. He was soon backed up by Union minister V.K. Singh. Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh went a notch further to claim that 400 were killed in the air strikes. At the same time, Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa said that the IAF does not count the number of dead.

While conflicting numbers emerge from various quarters, it is still not clear how the figures '250-300' started doing the rounds in the media. However, a statement made by Home minister Rajnath Singh on Tuesday raises some pertinent questions. 

Attacking those questioning the casualty numbers quoted by the Indian media, Singh had on Tuesday claimed that the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) had informed the security establishment that 300 mobile phones were active at the scene of Balakot bombing before the IAF action. "India's respected and authentic NTRO surveillance system has said 300 mobile phones were active there (JeM terror camp in Balakot) when IAF jets dropped bombs," Rajnath Singh in Dhubri, Assam. "Were these mobile phones used by the trees? Now will you not believe the NTRO also?" asked an angry Singh, lambasting the opposition over its demand for the number of fatalities.

Singh's quoting of the NTRO information raises a pertinent question. Did the government sources, who put the casualty figures around 250-300, deduce the numbers from the "active" mobile phones numbers in the region?

Soon after the attack on February 26, even amid reports of 250-300 deaths in Balakot following the IAF strike, Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale stated that a "large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders were eliminated in largest JeM camp in Balakot". He did not share an absolute figure of deaths.

Pakistan, on the other hand, said the strike hit an unpopulated wooded area. Questions over the number of casualties arose after a few international media reported quoting villagers that there had been only splintered pine trees from the impact of explosions that blasted them awake around 3am.

Meanwhile, Francesca Marino, an Italian journalist, claimed that Pakistan army carried away at least 35 dead bodies from the spot.