On May 14, Turkey will elect a new parliament and a new President. This means, after being in power for 20 years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may or may not retain power. Inflation and the recent earthquake have affected the popularity of the Erdogan government.
As of March, polls show that opposition presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu is leading against President Tayyip Erdogan by more than 10 percentage points, according to a Reuters report. The poll also revealed that victims of the earthquake in February are reconsidering their support towards Erdogan's AKP or AK Party.
The outcome of the elections will not only decide whether it will be Erdogan or opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the helm of power but also where its economy is headed.
“Simply blaming Erdogan for everything that is wrong in Turkey won’t cut it. Past elections have shown that Erdogan is a phenomenal campaigner, but recent remarks suggest he has lost his popular touch and his ability to connect with voters,” Wolfango Piccoli, political risk advisory co-president at Teneo told Reuters.
There are four candidates running in this year's elections-- Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu; centrist Homeland Party leader Muharrem Ince and right-wing Ancestral Alliance candidate Sinan Ogan. Elections are held every five years in Turkey and the candidate who receives more than 50 per cent of votes in the first round is elected president. However, if no candidates get a majority, the election goes into a second round, which is between the two candidates who received the highest number of votes in the first round.
Parliamentary elections take place at the same time as the presidential elections. Parties should gain at least 7 per cent votes – either on their own or in alliance with other parties –- to enter parliament.
Ince broke away from the Homeland Party in March this year and secured enough signatures to run for president. While Ince is unlikely to win, he could tip the scales enough for the elections to go into round two.
The top concern for the voters is the economy-- the currency crisis that hit in October, saw inflation rise to 85 per cent. Then there's the damage caused by the devastating earthquake. The quake killed at least 45,000 and rendered millions homeless. It caused immediate damage estimated at $34 billion, CNN reported. This could make it difficult for Erdogan to be re-elected. Voters are on the lookout for a candidate who could handle a disaster like an earthquake better in the future.
According to a Metropoll survey, Erdogan's chances of being elected are slim as support for Kilicdaroglu stood at 42.6 per cent and Erdogan’s at 41.1 per cent. Voters also indicated that if Ince withdraws from the presidential race, more voters are likely to switch to Kilicdaroglu and not Erdogan.
Kilicdaroglu, was on Friday, formally endorsed by the HDP or pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party. Over the years, Erdogan's government has silenced critics, especially those from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) over alleged affiliation with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey, the United States and the European Union consider a terrorist organization. This could again tip the scales to favour Kilicdaroglu, with HDP's voter base choosing to vote for Kilicdaroglu.
