As Bihar braces for the Assembly elections, most surveys are hinting at a favourable outcome for the ruling NDA coalition. While the Mahagathbandhan initially showed signs of resurgence, opinion polls and political analysts are placing their bets on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, despite an anti-incumbency factor at play.
Preparations are in full swing with the JDU taking the lead, hoping to retain power. The chatter is that the JD(U) wants a good number of seats so that there isn’t any leadership talk from the BJP camp. As per surveys, Nitish clearly enjoys a strong local support, and the public support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will translate into votes for him.
All the while, issues plague the Mahagathbandhan, especially on seat sharing. The going is likely to get tough for the Opposition coalition led by RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, according to political analysts.
These are some of the factors that could influence the outcome for the Opposition coalition.
1) Nitish Kumar-Narendra Modi combo: The Opposition still hasn’t got a face that is strong enough to take on either Nitish Kumar or Narendra Modi. Modi’s popularity and Nitish Kumar's administrative acumen have changed the electoral equation. Surveys show that Nitish's experience and Modi's charisma are strengthening the NDA. Though Tejashwi is seen as a popular face, there is still no confirmation from the Congress or allies in the Mahagathbandhan about him being the Chief Minister face of the alliance.
According to a recent survey, Nitish Kumar still leads the preferred CM race with 27% people backing him. Only 25 per cent think Tejashwi Yadav makes a good chief minister.
2) Dissent within Mahagathbandhan: Cracks are showing within the grand alliance, especially over seat sharing. Recently, the Left parties came out publicly seeking their share of the seats and publicly attacking the leaders for the delay in announcing the seat-sharing formula. The CPM and CPI state this could lead to 'confusion' and highlight the weakness in the grand alliance. The Congress also wants to follow the Maharashtra formula in Bihar, where it faced the elections without a CM face. The RJD is dismayed by this approach and fears the debacle in Maharashtra will repeat in Bihar.
3) Failure to connect with people: A recent survey had hinted that Rahul Gandhi’s vote chori claims didn’t seem to have the desired effect, as 52 per cent of the population believes his allegations are baseless. The survey also reveals that the Biharis are most worried about law, identity, and jobs.
As for the NDA, the BJP is announcing sops to lure voters, including the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, under which 75 lakh domiciled women in Bihar will get a one-time payment of Rs 10,000 for starting self-reliant work. The PM has also targeted the RJD and Congress for wrecking the education system in Bihar.
4) A weak Congress dragging down RJD: Congress is currently not in a position of strength in Bihar, though it is the second largest party in the Grand Alliance after RJD. But, many feel Rahul wasted Tejashwi’s time by dragging him to the Vote Chori issue, which failed to resonate among voters. Many in the RJD feel Congress isn’t doing its part as Rahul Gandhi is on a foreign trip and Mallikarjun Kharge is unwell and on rest.
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Though Congress has its reasons for not naming Tejashwi as CM face - his court cases along with Lalu Prasad Yadav - the party’s stance of never compromising on leadership in past alliances is not working in its favour in Bihar.
5) Entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj: Political analysts believe Prashant Kishor’s entry could eat into the vote base of both NDA and Mahagathbandhan. Kishor is simultaneously challenging both dominant coalitions in Bihar, though his strategy has been mostly against the ruling party. But, he minced no words, attacking the Yadav family. “What is there to say about the RJD? Tejashwi said his party would come out with a list of corrupt politicians. He will have to start with his parents,” Kishor recently said.
