The Election Commission of India on Monday announced the schedule for the Rajya Sabha elections to six seats from Tamil Nadu which will fall vacant on July 24. The notification will be issued on June 2 and the last date for submission of nominations is June 9. The last day for withdrawal of nominations in on June 12 and the voting will be held on June 19, if there is a contest.
With the ECI calling for the biennial election, the political heat in the state has hit a new high, with expectations growing both in the DMK and the AIADMK camp. It requires 34 votes for securing a Rajya Sabha seat in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. While the DMK leads the fight with 133 members it can win three seats comfortably while there is a need for the support of three MLAs for the fourth seat. However, this would not be a trouble in the DMK camp as Congress with its 17 members, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi with four MLAs and the Left parties with two each will extend support to the fourth member to be nominated to the upper house.
The terms of DMK MPs P. Wilson, M.M. Abdulla, M. Shanmugam, MDMK leader Vaiko, PMK leader Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss and AIADMK’s N. Chandrasegaran are coming to an end. While it is most likely that Wilson and Abdulla will be renominated, Makkal Needhi Maiam leader and actor Kamal Hassan will be accommodated in the DMK quota instead of Vaiko. The DMK had already signed a pact with Hassan during the 2024 Lok Sabha election to offer one Rajya Sabha seat. Sources say that either a minority or a woman member from the DMK could be accommodated in the fourth seat.
The AIADMK which has 62 members under Edappadi K. Palaniswami and four MLAs in the O. Panneerselvam faction can send one member. By renewing its ties with the BJP, the AIADMK can ensure victory for the second nominee from its alliance. But the question now is, if AIADMK will retain both the seats for itself or allot one to its alliance partners?
Highly placed sources in the AIADMK say that the party leadership wants to retain both the seats and it may not be allotted to its allies —be it Vijayakanth’s DMDK or Dr S. Ramadoss’s PMK. Dr Anbumani Ramadoss’s chances of getting his Rajya Sabha seat renewed look dim as there are confusions within his own party and the PMK has also not renewed its alliance with the AIADMK. Though the PMK continues to remain in the NDA, the party has not devised any electoral strategies, and is only fighting to resolve the internal squabbles. “There is no information from the leadership on this. But we feel that both father and son will get together soon to devise strategies to fight the upcoming assembly election,” a party senior informed THE WEEK.
“The dates have been announced only now. Patience is bigger than an ocean. We will wait to hear,” says DMDK leader Premalatha Vijayakanth who has been consistently insisting that the AIADMK should allot one seat to her party as agreed in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. She has been vociferous off late, while Palaniswami has made it clear that no such agreement to offer a Rajya Sabha seat to the DMDK was made. Sources say that the AIADMK is likely to nominate a Dalit and a minority member, so that it will help appease the voters in the ensuing 2026 assembly general elections.
Within the AIADMK circles, several seniors’ names—former ministers D. Jayakumar, S. Semmalai and Gokula Indira—and second generation leaders who lost in the Lok Sabha polls like Dr Saravanan, Raj Satyen who is the son of AIADMK Madurai strongman V.V. Rajan Chellappa and J. Jayavardhan son of Jayakumar are doing rounds.
While the alliance equations in the DMK is expected to remain intact, there could be changes in the AIADMK depending on allocation of the Rajya Sabha seats.
