Bhagwant Mann govt's standoff with farmers presents both risk and opportunity for AAP in Punjab

The Punjab Aam Aadmi Party government’s crackdown on the agitating farmers in the state has escalated the tensions between the two. Until now, the farmers' organisations had directed their anger against the Central government over their demands like a legal guarantee for minimum support price (MSP) for the crops. However, Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s tough stance, particularly his walkout from a meeting with farmers on March 3, has added a new dimension to the conflict. 

The farmers’ organisations, under the umbrella body Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), which had previously led protests against the three farm laws at Delhi’s borders in 2020, were taken aback by the chief minister’s sudden aggression. Mann had actively courted the farming community, given its significant influence in the state. After the stalemate over the talks, the farmer groups proceeded with their planned sit-in in Chandigarh on March 5. Chief Minister Mann ordered a crackdown as the Punjab police detained key farm union leaders, forcing them to call off their strike.

The SKM has now warned that they would now direct their agitation against the AAP and not let the party MLAs come out of their houses, and would gherao them as they had done with the BJP leaders during the 2020 farmers' agitation. The next call for gherao (lay siege) of AAP MLAs is on March 10.

For AAP, this standoff comes at a critical time. After a setback in Delhi, the party cannot afford to lose ground in Punjab. The ongoing confrontation with farmers presents both risks and opportunities for the ruling party.

On one hand, farmer unions enjoy vast support among Punjab’s Sikh and rural populations. A prolonged conflict could turn public sentiment against the Mann government, potentially benefiting opposition parties like the Congress and the Akali Dal, the two parties which previously ruled the state.

On the other hand, the Mann government, facing growing anti-incumbency sentiment, could use this moment to reassert its administrative authority. The frequent farmer protests, often disruptive to daily life and businesses, have drawn criticism from sections of the public. A firm stance against these sit-ins could earn the government support from those frustrated by repeated disruptions.

Frequent protests have also harmed Punjab’s business environment. The BJP, which saw an increase in its vote share in the last Lok Sabha elections, has benefitted from this discontent. While the Punjab assembly elections are still two years away, AAP’s crackdown on farmer protests may earn it a new and persistent adversary, but it could also help the party gain some political credibility and fill the perceived “political leadership vacuum” in the state.

Moreover, AAP argues that many of the farmers' demands, such as the legal guarantee for MSP and timely grain procurement, fall under the jurisdiction of the Union government. The Centre, too, has been engaging with farmer leaders. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan met with SKM leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal—who is still on an indefinite fast—last month, and another meeting is scheduled for March 19. As negotiations continue, the political ramifications of this standoff will be closely watched.