The Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency in North Kashmir is shaping up to be an exceptionally challenging battleground for Omar Abdullah, former chief minister and leader of the National Conference (NC). Omar is facing Sajad Lone of People’s Conference and Awami Itehad Party (AIP) leader Engineer Rashid, who is contesting from jail.
Several factors contribute to the heightened difficulty of this contest, making it one of the most competitive electoral battles he has faced in his political career.
Rashid was arrested after the abrogation of Article 370 on terror charges by NIA. His two sons Abrar Rasheed and Asrar Rasheed took the reins of their father's campaign and shored up support without resorting to much fanfare. Their youthful energy and personal connection with the electorate, coupled with their emotive appeals, have resonated deeply with voters, particularly the youth.
Their campaign, characterised by organic rallies and direct engagement with voters, starkly contrasts with the more traditional political approaches. This has generated significant enthusiasm and support, particularly among younger voters who seek change and feel disenfranchised by legacy politicians.
Rashid’s political journey, marked by activism and a strong stance on Kashmiri nationalism, has garnered him a loyal support base. This support has been galvanised further by his arrest and the abrogation of Article 370. His sons effectively channelled the sentiment, turning their campaign into a broader movement against perceived injustices and aligning with the frustrations of many in the constituency.
The Baramulla constituency has undergone significant changes due to delimitation. It now encompasses 18 assembly constituencies, including areas like Budgam and Beerwah. This has diversified the voter base, incorporating significant populations of Gujjar Bakarwal, Pahari, and Shia communities. These demographic shifts add layers of complexity to the electoral landscape, making it harder for traditional strongholds to maintain their grip.
Lone also actively campaigned in Kupwara, his home district, Baramulla and key areas like central Kashmir’s Budgam and Beerwah that were included in the Baramulla constituency after delimitation. His campaign has focussed on projecting Omar as an outsider and calling him a tourist, a term also used against Omar by former Congress leader and Democratic Progressive Azad Party leader Ghulam Nabi Azad.
Lone has considerable clout in Kupwara due to his father and founder of the People's Conference. He also enjoys the support of Shia Muslims in the constituency due to Imran Ansari, the scion of prominent the Ansari family of Kashmir. The NC tried to counter that by deploying Syed Agha Roullah Medhi, a Shia leader from Budgam, and the party’s Lok Sabha candidate from Srinagar. Mehdi actively campaigned for Omar in the constituency. His influence over the Shia community in Budgam is considered crucial. However, consolidating this support amidst the backdrop of a diversified voter base remains a challenge.
The turnout in Baramulla constituency has been traditionally high. The combination of a vigorous, youth-led campaign by Rashid's sons, the symbolic defiance against the government, the demographic and political complexities of the Baramulla constituency, and the strong presence of influential rivals makes this election particularly challenging for Omar Abdullah. In the last Lok Sabha polls, NC candidate Akbar Lone polled more than 1,30,000 votes while Lone and Rashid polled more than 103,000 and 102,000 votes respectively. The PDP candidate Fayaz Mir got more than 53,000 votes. He is again in the fray representing his party. But the contest observers say is largely between Omar, Lone and Rashid.
The outcome of this high-stakes battle will not only determine the next representative for Baramulla but also reflect broader political sentiments and the evolving dynamics of grassroots movements in Kashmir.
