The Supreme Court’s dismissal of a petition challenging the Centre’s decision to set up a delimitation commission, to reorganise the assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies in the freshly carved out state of Jammu and Kashmir, can have a bearing on southern states.
There are ripples from Kashmir to Kanyakumari because even though the petition had been moved by two residents of J&K, at the heart of the issue is a legal battle being mounted in the apex court to understand the implications of the setting up of a delimitation commission for J&K on the rest of the country-especially Andhra Pradesh – that saw the creation of twin states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh- with the AP reorganisation act of 2014.
At that time, the Centre had said that delimitation of assembly constituencies in the Telugu-speaking states can only take place with the rest of the country after 2026.
Ravi Shankar Jandhyala, senior counsel of the petitioners, said the ramifications are far-reaching even though the present petition does not raise issues outside J&K.
He said the rationale given by the Centre in the past to postpone the demand for a delimitation exercise till 2026 was the freeze after the last population-based delimitation in the country was held in 1971. The Centre said the next delimitation exercise in the country cannot be held until the first census after 2026. This in effect meant that the next delimitation can be carried out only according to the 2031 census (census is a decennial exercise) and states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana among others will naturally have to wait that long.
However, after the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K and the JK Reorganisation Act 2019 coming into force, the moot question is whether the newly bifurcated state of J&K can wait that long. The government finds it legislatively unwise to do so. It has also argued that it is legally tenable and constitutionally valid to set up a delimitation commission for J&K.
"If the focus is ‘one country, one Constitution’, why are there different yardsticks being adopted for J&K and states like Telangana and Andhra Pradesh?" asked Ravi Shankar.
The delimitation exercise in Jammu and Kashmir was carried out in 1995 based on the 1981 census as there was no census conducted in the erstwhile state in 1991. The apex court was also informed that the delimitation commission constituted in 2020 has not increased the seats in the assembly and parliamentary constituencies in the union territory of JK.
Predictably enough, the debate around delimitation exercise in the country- J&K or another state— cannot ignore yet another concern about population driving an increase in the number of seats, as boundaries of parliamentary and assembly constituencies get redrawn. In the context of Andhra Pradesh, the court was informed that even though the AP reorganisation act talked of an increase in seats for both states, Article 170(3) of the Constitution said the total number of seats in the assembly of each state will be readjusted after the first census is published post-2026.
This has been a prick, if not a thorn, for southern states, particularly those which fear a lop-sided gain for northern states by 2031. This is because the delimitation process, which marks the boundaries of parliamentary or assembly constituencies, is based on census exercise and factors in population growth.
“There is a serious concern in southern states, which have a total of 129 Lok Sabha seats, that since they implement population control measures better, there may be a stable census count or even a dip, impacting the number of Lok Sabha seats as compared to the northern states which are witnessing rise in population," said Shahshidhar Reddy, former minister and senior BJP leader who quit the Congress last year.
"There may be a scenario where Uttar Pradesh alone might have more LS seats than all southern seats combined," he said.
Therefore, when a population-based exercise becomes the basis of delimitation, speculation around the number of seats changing or increasing can become a matter of intense discussion and debate depending on the population of the constituencies being drawn out. What it means for the political parties contesting elections is yet another debate that is bound to heat up when delimitation comes closer home in the states. For now, all eyes are on the rider put by the Supreme Court when it upheld the delimitation of seats in J&K. While J&K is slated to go to polls after the delimitation exercise, it is water under the bridge for Telangana for now which is likely to go to polls this year.
