The massive protests in Pakistan's Gwadar, led by Jamaat-e-Islami outfit, and the announcement by its chief Siraj ul Haq to conduct countrywide protests against Pakistan government’s economic policies, reflect attempts being made by religious groups to gain space in a political tug-of-war in the country. The competition had intensified after militant organisation Tehreek-e-Labbaik (TLP) pressurised the government to release its chief Saad Hussain Rizvi from Lahore’s Kot Lakhpat jail on November 18.
Rizvi’s release followed days of protests and clashes with the police. TLP has a massive votebank in Punjab and Sindh, and has propped Rizvi as a "kingmaker" in the 2023 general elections. "There is full support of the establishment to TLP," said a senior security official.
Experts believe that the release of Rizvi, and the lifting of ban on TLP, has prompted other religious groups, particularly the Deobandis and Jamaat, to raise their heads and try to make space for themselves.
Even as the protests in Gwadar have started drawing international attention, the reasons for New Delhi to toe a careful line are one too many. Firstly, there is emerging evidence of deep religious divides finding a fertile ground in Balochistan with the support of the Pakistani army.
Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rehman, secretary general of JeI, is a local of Gwadar. He is spearheading the massive protests against Chinese presence in the port, which is key to the Belt and Road-linked China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The protests have been going on for more than a month on issues of illegal fishing trawlers, numerous security check posts curtailing movement of locals, restrictions on local trade with Iranian province bordering Balochistan, besides issues of constitutional rights. Maulana Hidayat was born and brought up in Balochistan, and might have some genuine concern about the plight of Baloch people. But many who hail from that region believe that his party, JeI, is not trustworthy and is being used by the Pakistani army to systematically destroy the Baloch struggle for liberation.
"The Pakistan army first used military power. Then it used forced disappearances and killings, and now it is the systematic use of religious parties and groups to create religious and sectarian strife and gain power in Balochistan,’’ Faiz M. Baluch, editor of Balochwarna News, told THE WEEK from London.
"China and Pakistan are on the same side, and there have been efforts in the past by Chinese government to discredit the freedom struggle in different ways," he said .
The suspicion that the Pakistani army is lending support to Islamic organisations to fuel religious strife and violence in the region is also making Indian agencies wary of lending credence to it. "The fresh protests offer an opportunity for India to highlight the worsening situation in the region, especially the religious strife, but it needs to be careful not to lend a platform to divisive voices,’’ said Prateek Joshi, PhD candidate researching on foreign policy at Oxford.
Jamaat is the same organisation whose leaders were hanged to death in Bangladesh in the last decade after they were convicted for rape, torture and genocide during the Bangladesh war of Liberation in 1971. Whether it was the hanging of Motiur Rahman Nizami in 2016 or Abdul Quader Molla in 2013, the chequered past of the outfit reflects its leanings to Pakistan state.
Moreover, none of the religious parties have publicly supported the Gwadar protests, whether it is the Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (Deobandi) or Milli Muslim League, or even TLP. This is being seen as a proof of the growing competitiveness among religious leaders of different sects.
There is also more proof of increased political activity among religious groups, with Lashkar-e-Toiba affiliated Allahu Akbar Tehreek announcing its decision to increase its political presence.
The fact that the Pakistani establishment has nurtured Islamist and jihadist forces since inception makes it natural for the government to play its religious card and religious factions to witness a tug of war whenever they get an opportunity, said a security official.
With the religious strife playing out in an area of strategic significance for India, it is natural for security czars in New Delhi to try and find an opportunity to expose the deep divides in Pakistan. However, this time, New Delhi is also playing its cards safe because of its recent experience watching the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and developments in Gilgit Baltistan unfold. PTM leaders Manzoor Pashteen and Mohsin Dawar, who were rattling the Pakistan army in 2018, are said to have been controlled by Pakistan army general Qamar Javed Bajwa.
On the other hand, in Gilgit Baltistan, soon after India raised the issue of plight of people there, Pakistani authorities moved swiftly to award provincial status to the strategically located region. India had clearly conveyed to Pakistan that the entire territory of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, including GB, are integral parts of the country.
But, the noise made over GB accelerated Islamabad’s complete control in the region, which is critical to the CPEC that provides China access to the Indian Ocean through a network of roads and railroads out of Xinjiang. Once again, the Gwadar protests have put the spotlight back on CPEC. Ongoing strife and unrest in the area will continue to be a matter of deep strategic concern for New Delhi.
The fact that CPEC is also a sore point with the restive population of Balochistan may keep the pot boiling for sometime.
"Even though the insurgency has largely been contained by Pakistan army, the suffering of the Baloch people and the various administrative issues are real,’’ said Prateek. "But we must be careful not to mistake anti-administration protests with anti-government protests," he said.
New Delhi may adopt a wait and watch policy before it takes a stand on the Gwadar protests. Before that, the bigger question for security agencies is whether it will be productive to pick the bait.
