Well, well, well. What’s new, pussycat? The world has finally caught up. The balance of power is shifting, and those of us with a keen eye saw it coming long before it became fashionable to write LinkedIn posts dripping with pseudo-wisdom. Some people had their “aha” moment watching China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Me? Mine came in 1979, at the All England Badminton Championship, watching a bunch of wiry, disciplined Chinese players in army-issue kit, stepping onto the court like they were storming the world stage.
I nudged whoever was next to me—some hapless Englishman, no doubt—and muttered, Watch this lot. They’re here to play the long game. And they did. Not just in badminton, but in everything else.
If my father were still around, he would be standing in the doorway with his arms crossed, nodding sagely. He saw it even earlier, back in the 1960s. Watch them, he’d say. Watch their work ethic, their discipline, their ability to outthink and outmanoeuvre. The only straight thing about a Chinaman is his hair. He wasn’t being derogatory—just bluntly observant, as was his way. They’ll outwork and outlearn the lot of you.
Meanwhile, India, my father would lament, was busy talking. Bla bla bla. Meetings about meetings, endless theories, speeches, and more theories about the speeches. Whereas China? China just did.
Now, let’s be clear—I’m not some geopolitical prophet. But I’ve always had a knack for spotting the game before the referee even blows the whistle. It comes from years of watching sport, business, and law unfold in real time.
Take 1977. First year of my LLB law studies in England. That’s when I met Nigel —later to become, the man who would transform a legal firm into a global legal juggernaut. But back then, he was just another law student with a sharp wit and an even sharper eye for opportunity. He introduced himself with a grin and said, “Oh, Yangtze River, full of fish!”—a joke he probably thought would make him sound worldly, though I suspect he had little idea how prophetic it was. Because China? China wasn’t just full of fish. It was about to become the biggest shark in the tank.
Fast forward to today. America is retreating, power-drunk but spent, still pretending its aircraft carriers and think tanks hold the same weight they did in the Cold War. Europe, caught in an existential crisis, isn’t sure whether to dance with Washington or Beijing. And China? Oh, China is playing its hand masterfully, underwriting global order not with tanks, but with trade, infrastructure, and cold, calculated diplomacy.
China isn’t preaching democracy and enforcing power through shock-and-awe air campaigns or military bases in every continent. No, it’s underwriting power with infrastructure, mediation, and industrial leverage:
• Infrastructure as leverage – The Belt and Road Initiative isn’t just about roads and ports; it’s about economic influence. If you build a country’s highways, railways, and telecom networks, you own the rhythm of its economy.
• Diplomacy as currency – China has now brokered three major regional ceasefires in just 24 months. It’s stepping into negotiations, not with threats, but with trade deals and economic stability as bargaining chips.
• Postwar security as influence – As of March 2025, China is taking its first public step toward deploying a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. This marks a shift from ceasefire broker to postwar security underwriter. While the U.S. is scaling back troop presence in Europe, China is increasing defense cooperation with EU-adjacent states.
And the numbers tell the story better than any politician can:
• EU imports from China hit €626B in 2024—double those from the U.S.
• U.S. troop presence in Europe is down 20% since 2020.
• 62% of Europeans now see the U.S. as a declining power, while 54% see China as a necessary partner.
Geopolitical power no longer flows from military supremacy.
It flows from the ability to underwrite order.
And China? China is now the world’s creditor, builder, and arbitrator.
The West waged wars for “democracy” and left behind drone strikes, debt burdens, and destroyed infrastructure.
China builds peacetime leverage through credit lines, industrial policy, and forward-deployed supply chains.
Diplomatic trust, like currency, compounds with credibility and convertibility. And capital—whether financial, industrial, or geopolitical—is now following the new axis of influence.
The balance sheet is shifting. The signature on peace is changing.
And the next reserve asset might not be green.
It might be red and gold.
And as I sit here in slow-life Tuscany, watching it all unfold, and a friend saying she is studying all about World War II, I’ll take this moment to say—told you so.
