Turkey hopes for a reset of ties with the US under Donald Trump

Turkey has upped its diplomatic game to improve ties with the United States under the new administration of President Donald Trump, marking a definite shift towards warmer ties following years of strained relations under president Biden. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in the US earlier this week, and the tone and tenor of his visit reflects Ankara’s strategic intent to capitalise on Trump’s leadership style and policy priorities.

The meeting between Fidan and Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the mutual desire to strengthen bilateral cooperation, particularly in the defence sector, and to pave the way for future high-level engagements. Turkey clearly sees an opportunity to realign its partnership with the US, leveraging Trump’s transactional approach and his more favourable stance towards decisive, and often authoritarian leadership, to address long-standing issues and enhance collaboration on regional and global challenges.

Over the past few years, Turkey and the US, despite being NATO allies, have drifted apart. Biden was guarded in his approach towards Ankara and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, primarily because of the Turkish leader’s political philosophy and dictatorial policies. He always kept Erdogan at a distance, most notably delaying their first phone call for three months after taking over as president and then calling up to announce American recognition of the Armenian genocide, a big taboo in Turkey.

The Biden administration was also obviously unhappy about Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defence system in 2019, which triggered American sanctions. It also led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet programme, severely straining defence ties and marking a collapse of the strategic partnership that once defined their alliance. More tensions arose over differing policies on Syria, the war in Gaza and Turkey’s problematic approach towards democracy and human rights.

Trump’s return to the White House has shifted the dynamic, offering Turkey a chance to reset ties. Trump has a history of engaging directly with the Turkish leader. During his first term, the two met nine times, and Erdogan had Trump’s personal phone number, a privilege that underscored their personal rapport. This chemistry, coupled with Trump’s preference for personal diplomacy over institutional frameworks, aligns closely with Erdogan’s own approach to foreign policy. A recent phone call between the two, described as “transformational” by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, has further fuelled optimism in Ankara about the potential for a renewed partnership.

At the heart of Turkey’s agenda is the restoration of defence cooperation, a cornerstone of its alliance with the US. Fidan’s discussions with Rubio focused heavily on removing obstacles in this area, with both sides expressing a clear political will to resolve disputes. The S-400 issue, however, remains a sticking point. Turkey argues that its removal from the F-35 programme, where it was both a manufacturer and buyer, was unjust and has demanded either reinstatement or compensation for its $1.4 billion investment.

Under Biden, talks to resolve the deadlock—centred on Turkey’s pledge to keep the system non-operational—did not go forward. Now, with Trump’s administration showing a more lenient attitude towards Russia, Turkey hopes for a breakthrough. A Turkish official suggested that if US sanctions on Russia were lifted, maintaining related sanctions on third countries like Turkey would become untenable, leading to a resolution.

Beyond the S-400 dispute, Turkey is keen to advance other defence projects. The exclusion from the F-35 programme prompted Ankara to order 40 Lockheed Martin Block-70 F-16 jets, a deal which was inked, but has been stalled for months. Progress on this acquisition and broader defence industry collaboration, was a key topic during Fidan’s visit. A Turkish foreign ministry source told American media that technical talks would follow to address these issues, reflecting a pragmatic approach to rebuilding trust and capability-sharing between the two allies.

Improving US-Turkey ties also has significant regional implications. Trump’s shift away from Biden’s policy of isolating Moscow and unwavering support for Kyiv has opened new avenues for dialogue. Turkey, which has maintained a delicate balance between Russia and the west, sees itself as a potential partner in mediation and also in reshaping European security. Turkey thinks that Trump’s rocky relations with Europe, coupled with his contempt for NATO, could elevate Turkey’s role as a security provider in the continent. This is particularly relevant as Europe grapples with uncertainties over American commitment, potentially increasing the value of Turkey’s military strength and thriving defence sector.

On regional issues, Fidan and Rubio emphasised the importance of stability in Syria and the Balkans, along with efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and secure a ceasefire in Gaza. Turkey has positioned itself as a mediator, offering to contribute to American initiatives while advocating for its own priorities, such as Syria’s territorial integrity and the lifting of sanctions to support reconstruction efforts. The fight against key antagonists such as the PKK/YPG and the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), remains a key focus, with Turkey seeking greater US cooperation. The death of Fetullah Gulen, the Pennsylvania-based Turkish cleric who was accused of masterminding the 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan, has also gone a long way in improving bilateral ties.

Erdogan himself has expressed confidence in the upward trajectory of ties with the US, stating earlier this week that bilateral relations could gain “significant momentum” despite challenges from lobbies seeking to undermine cooperation. This optimism was echoed by Turkish Ambassador to the US, Sedat Onal, who, speaking at an Atlantic Council event on March 21, said the potential for “greater convergence and complementarity” in addressing conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza. Onal pointed to the existing “strategic mechanism” framework as a foundation for deeper engagement, with plans for new high-level visits.

Trump’s public praise for Erdogan on March 25, calling him a “good leader” amid Turkey’s domestic unrest following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, further bolsters Ankara’s hopes. While this endorsement has drawn criticism given Turkey’s political crackdown, it signals to investors and policymakers that Trump is unlikely to exert significant pressure on Erdogan. The Turkish lira, which stabilised after an initial plunge, reflects market confidence in this pragmatic alignment.

For Erdogan, Trump’s leadership offers more than just policy alignment—it resonates with his world view as well. Both leaders share a populist streak, a belief in their dealmaking prowess, and a preference for bilateralism over multilateralism. Trump’s opposition to liberal interventionism contrasts with the Democrats’ focus on democracy and human rights, which Erdogan perceives as a threat to his governance. This ideological convergence, combined with Trump’s willingness to overlook such concerns in favour of practical outcomes, suits Erdogan’s vision of a relationship unencumbered by ideological friction.

Turkey is seizing the opportunity presented by Trump’s presidency to mend and enhance its ties with the United States. Through Fidan’s visit and ongoing diplomatic efforts, Ankara is addressing defence disputes, aligning on regional priorities, and leveraging personal ties between its leader and Trump. Turkey aims to position itself as an indispensable ally, capitalising on Trump’s pragmatic foreign policy to secure its strategic and economic interests.