The draft deal that the United Nations Convention of Climate Change released on Wednesday morning has clearly raised the climate ambition, with a goal to keep to the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold on global temperature rise, noting that “the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C''.
The document, prepared by host nation UK, urges parties to scale up the climate ambition by revisiting and upping the 2030 targets of their nationally determined contributions.
However, though it mentions the need for climate finance, and regrets the undelivered USD 100 billion a year that was promised, it does not make an emphatic statement on the need to raise the climate ambition. This was a point Prime Minister Narendra Modi had emphasised in his speech, noting that scaled up ambition had to go hand in hand with more financial commitment.
The draft, which will have to be ratified by all parties before being formally released, said that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century. It asks nations to look for newer ways to reduce non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions and to accelerate the phasing out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels. The Paris Summit of 2015 had agreed on 2 °C as the threshold, though acknowledging that efforts should be made to keep it within 1.5 °C.
The draft is predictible and, therefore, is likely to meet with the expected opposition from parties. India, for instance, is not likely to agree to the statement on accelerating coal phaseout. There are statements like a recognition of the need to ensure a just transition towards a low carbon future and the creation of decent work and quality jobs, which might offset the carbon neutral emphasis, but will it lead to unanimous agreement. While vulnerable nations like Bangladesh and small island developing nations have been stressing to raise ambition to the 1.5 °C goal, many of them acknowledge that phasing out coal is not feasible anytime soon.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, which became rich with fossil fuel, too, will not agree to accelerate carbon phaseouts.
The draft makes repeated mention of the promised USD 100 billion, at one point even noting with dismay its non delivery as yet, and stresses on the challenges developing countries face in accessing finance. It “notes the specific concerns raised with regard to eligibility and ability to access concessional forms of climate finance”. Transparency in climate finance, a point India is emphatic upon, finds mention in the line that the document “emphasizes the importance of transparency in the implementation of the achievement of the USD 100 billion goal from 2020 to 2025 and the collective actions contained in the Climate Finance Delivery Plan.''
It also welcomes the newer commitments countries have made on climate finance above this promise, but it does not quantify these commitments. The draft also calls upon the private sector and multilateral instruments to rustle up climate finances. India will be careful on this issue, because it is clear that it does not recognise business to business financing as part of climate finance. Philantrophic contributions is another matter, though. India has been a strong voice on raising climate finance to keep it commensurate with raised climate ambition. “Climate finance is not charity, it is part of the Common but differentiated responsibity [towards climate change] that the Paris Agreement has,'' said India's Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav while addressing the press in Glasgow.
The draft has been considerate of the needs of developing nations and those most vulnerable to climate change events, and emphasises on the importance of technology development and transfer for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation action. It however, does not say anything binding about technology transfer by rich nations. Technology transfer is the only way in which the nations which are behind can leapfrog over the polluting stages of their development and transit to clean energy. Technology, however, is money, and those who have it are naturally not too gung-ho about handing it over for free. Yet, the developed world expects the rest to catch up with them on clean energy adoption.
There is hectic negotiation on in the various rooms at the venue, as each country tries to ensure its point finds mention. Though the statement will not be legally binding, it will have the commitment of 200 countries.
