A white paper by an Australia cybersecurity research firm has claimed that purchases of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing kits in China spiked in the months preceding the first time the World Health Organisation China Country Office first noted a surge in cases of an unknown pneumonia.
The researchers based their study on data from bidcenter.com.cn, a website listing Chinese government tenders. It notes a "dramatic" increase in PCR procurement contracts in 2019. The primary purchases were the Wuhan University of Science and Technology, the Wuhan CDC, Hubei CDC, and the Institute of Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine (combined).
"The total PCR procurement purchase price increased from 2015 to 2018, until a dramatic increase was witnessed in 2019: 10.1M Yuan (2015); 19.1M Yuan (2016); 29.1M Yuan (2017); 36.7M Yuan (2018); and 67.4M Yuan (2019). For perspective the total 2019 contract value is higher than the sum of the previous two years," the report states.
It notes an increase in spending on PCR tests beginning in May. "We believe the increased spending in May suggests this as the earliest start date for possible infection. We assess with medium confidence that the significant increase in PCR purchasing starts in July 2019," the report says.
The firm, Internet 2.0, is led by cyber security analysts Robert Potter and David Robinson and includes several former military and intelligence officials.
While the researchers stop short of claiming this as a smoking gun moment for the origin of the pandemic, they call for further research on procurement contracts for similar items like ventilators.
The study adds to claims that China may have been aware of the spread of COVID-19 months before the first reported cases.
ALSO READ: What exactly happened in Wuhan?
Experts speaking to Bloomberg noted that adoption of PCR testing had been on the rise globally to its growing role as the standard method of testing for pathogens. China was also dealing with an outbreak of African swine fever in 2019.
The Chinese government told Bloomberg that the findings fell into "the same category as other dubious claims about the origins of the coronavirus" and said its State Council Information Office had already published a white paper on China's actions to combat COVID-19 that offered a "clear timeline and iron-clad facts".
"China's anti-epidemic campaign is open to the world, the situation is clear, the facts are clear at a glance, and stand the test of time and history," the spokesperson said.
