The tumultuous reign of K.P. Shamra Oli has ended, but Nepalis aren't too optimistic about the newly elected prime minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba (75) of the Nepal Congress of leading the country out of its many challenges, both internal and international.
Deuba has a chequered political career. He comes back as prime minister for a record fifth time, but his previous stints weren't glorious. His first stint in 1995 ended within months when the Maoists declared war against the state and he was incapable of managing the situation. Although he came to power three times after that, they were short, lacklustre stints which didn't show him in great light. The last time he left office, he handed the country over to Maoists—his party had lost the elections that he himself oversaw as prime minister.
However, Deuba is tenacious, never missing an opportunity to strike, as he did earlier this year, staking claim to form government when Oli dissolved the House in May. President Bidya Devi Bhandari struck down both Oli and Deuba's claims to form government, but the Supreme Court finally prevailed in the latter's favour. Perhaps this very tenacity will hold him in good stead as he gets ready to steer a very unstable coalition for the next 18 months, till the next general elections can be held. His chief supporters, Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Nepal Communist Party and Upendra Yadav of the Janata Samajbadi Party, are both ace politicians with personal ambitions.
Deuba made one bold move, and came out winner when he decided to go for a vote of confidence soon after his appointment. He won 165 of the 275 votes, much more than the required 136. Deuba had a month to get the vote of confidence, but he played it early, and got the advantage. This would mean that he could get the next 18 months, a long enough time in Nepal politics, provided no partner withdraws support. His predecessor Oli had not managed to hold onto a much more stable government for a little more than three years. Will Deuba succeed in holding together a fragile coalition?
There are also internal conflicts in his own party that he will have to navigate through.
Holding onto the chair is just one of Deuba's challenges. The country is in a mess, ravaged by the pandemic and economically battered. Nepal has administered around four lakh doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, which, by one estimate, covers less than ten per cent of the population. Ramping up the vaccination drive is important for the country, where tourism is a major income generator.
Nepal has witnessed 9,500 deaths and over 6.6 lakh COVID-19 cases.
Deuba also has to sort out international relations, specially with the two big neighbours, India and China. Oli played one against the other, and his move last year of amending the Constitution to change the map of Nepal to include territory in dispute with India has fractured relations—a move from which stepping back is a problem for Nepal now. Oli also poked India in many other ways, sometimes blaming it for spreading the virus in Nepal, other times obstructing flood control work on the rivers running from Nepal into Bihar. He even made a move to change citizenship rules, making it difficult for Indian brides to get citizenship in Nepal. Cocking a snook at the roti beti ja rishta (blood and bread ties) between the two countries, he said such concepts were passe in the new bilateral. Repairing ties with India, which showed much restraint in its dealings with Oli, will be important for Deuba, even as he keeps the balance with China.
Observers in Nepal are quick to point out that Deuba didn't appoint either a health minister or a foreign minister after assuming office, his first appointments were energy, finance, home and law ministers. Giving him benefit of doubt, one hopes he wants to give more thought to these crucial appointments.
Will Deuba rise to the challenge, making this term that glorious chapter of his career which his previous stints were not? He has 18 months to prove himself. Or does he?
