Do the Democrats stand a chance at the 2020 US elections?

One of the major setbacks for the party was when Kamala Harris backed out of the race

american_candidates American Presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Walsh and Bill Weld | AP

With the election year in the US being around the corner, more than a dozen candidates in the democratic party are aspiring for the Democratic Party’s nominations to take the Republican President Donald Trump head-on in the upcoming 2020 American presidential elections. The list of the democratic party candidates that are still campaigning for the nominations includes the top rankers Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, along with newcomers like Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, Julian Castro, Cory Booker etc. The Democratic Party’s field is turning out to be a mix of seasoned politicians, wealthy business people and others looking to get a fresh break or gain their foothold again form the top tier of Democratic Party’s list of contenders. 

One of the major setbacks for the Democratic Party was when one of the consequential and notable candidates Kamala Harris, a Senator from California backed out from the race. Harris’s surprising and early exit from the race reflects the complicated racial and gender dynamics of the 2020 campaign. Harris’s agenda topics included reproductive rights, the gender and racial pay gap, racial health disparities and school integration. This also brought to the forefront that America is still a nation in which rarely a black woman has ever been elected governor and Kamala Harris became the second black woman to be elected to the US Senate. This also puts a dent in the Democratic Party’s progressive idealistic image to persuade the American voters.

Out of the fifteen candidates that are contesting for Democratic Party’s nominations only seven—namely Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang—had qualified for the next Democratic debate which was scheduled for December 19, 2019. In addition to this, three Republican challengers have also declared their intention to run against President Trump’s re-nomination. However, the speculations amongst political pundits are rife that there are chances that the Democrats will be able to unseat President Trump in November 2020 elections considering their sweeping victory in the House of Representatives during the 2018 mid-term elections. Still, it all remains to be seen in the future. 

The major points on Democrats’ agenda range from delivering high-quality healthcare for all, to affordable college, to a tax system that rewards all. One of the biggest challenges faced by the Democrat candidates is to convince the voters to remove the Republican President from White House even though the economy is doing well. This has emerged as the Achilles heels of the Democratic party’s agenda planning since 1988.

Major Agenda Points of Democrats

Joe Biden, with near-universal recognition, has become one of the front runners and has focussed his agenda on the clean energy revolution along with rebuilding the middle-class and tuition-free public universities. Biden is also pledging to undo much of President Trump’s immigration policy. However, the former Vice President has faced scepticism from immigration advocates and Latino activists for this policy which were also criticizing Former President Barack Obama for deporting more immigrants per year as compared to the current President.

For the 2016 Presidential election front-runner Bernie Sanders the major agenda point has been eliminating the student debt along with universal health coverage for all and increasing the minimum wage limit. Regarding the immigration policies, Senator Sanders of Vermont has said he would end all deportations if elected as president. Sanders also enjoys widespread recognition among Democrats from his decades of serving in the Congress and his 2016 run against Hillary Clinton. He has also established a grass-roots army of small donors that helped him lead the pack in fundraising. He is also considered to be the top rival of Joe Biden with 37 per cent of voters thinking that Sanders would beat President Trump in the general election as compared to the 10 per cent who think that he will lose. It will be safe to say that Sanders is supported by more than 20 per cent of Democrats. This is in comparison to the 36 per cent in favour of Joe Biden to defeat President Trump in the elections. 

The favourite of the progressive left, Elizabeth Warren’s agenda issues have been related to erasing the student debt but based on income level. The highlight of her campaign agenda has been wealth tax and healthcare & abortion rights. In comparison to her, regraded as the millennial candidate, Pete Buttigieg is fast emerging as the major gainer in this quest with his main agenda point focussing on reshaping the American Supreme Court along with political reforms, LGBTQ rights and college loan relief. Besides being a millennial candidate, other unique qualities of Buttigieg’s resume include being an openly gay veteran of the Afghanistan War besides being a Rhodes Scholar. Though it seems nearly impossible for him to make way for the White House, still it indicates the changing winds in the American political scene. As Pete Buttigieg enjoys a polling surge in Iowa and New Hampshire, he is simultaneously trying to prevent a rebound by Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has levelled off in the polls after a strong summer and contain Senator Bernie Sanders, whose support has proved durable. At the same time, Buttigieg-Warren smouldering feud was out in the open on the national television during the Presidential debate marking the Democratic Party’s dwindling pool of presidential contenders just six weeks preceding the primary voting. In such a scenario, it will be interesting to watch the winners of this race in the democratic party and who will be emerging as the top contenders for White House and locking horns with President Trump in November 2020 elections. 

Also. in this list of candidates, the emerging entrant Michael Bloomberg is not short of funding to stay in this race. However, by rejecting donations, there are chances that he might not be able to go too far. Meanwhile, he has begun his campaign with the rhetoric that seems more similar to Mitt Romney’s campaign in 2012, in both substance and inability to comprehend differences as compared with other Democrats. At the same time, it cannot be ignored that definitely money can help Bloomberg to stay in the race a little while longer but it cannot buy real traction.

Republican agenda

Numerous political pundits, analysts and journalists have speculated that President Trump will face a tough battle for his re-election to Oval Office. Several factors have been cited for the same which included unpopularity of President Trump in polls and his association with the Russian interference in the 2016 US elections as well as the impeachment proceedings and support to unpopular policies. All these factors combined have worked against the incumbent US president Trump. As compared to the Democrats, there is a little chance in the Republican party to gain nomination against President Trump. At the same time, impeachment enquiries against President Trump have made it inevitable to view the Republican party politics through the impeachment prism. Also, the scenario seems to resemble the era during the height of the Watergate scandal, where associating with President Nixon through the impeachment process consolidated the then Governor Ronald Reagan his position in the Republican party. However, the critical issue remains that “in order for the Republicans to take power in the Senate, House and statehouses: whether they should run their races or tie themselves to the President”, according to Spencer Bokat-Lindell in an opinion piece in The New York Times in early November this year. Both the Republicans Joe Walsh and Bill Weld have been the open critics of President Trump and his conduct in the Oval Office. Where on one hand, the strong-point of Trump’s campaign remains the thriving economy stoked by tax cuts and deregulations, combative approach to international affairs and global trade deals. 

In the words of Rahm Emanuel, former President Barack Obama’s advisor, “it is necessary that the next US President needs to be both idealistic and ruthless, able to advocate for ideas while accepting criticisms.” Emanuel has supported Democratic candidates Warren and Biden for their string points mentioning that Biden’s chances are broadened due to his “knowing how the Oval Office operates and having the capacity to work with the Congress.” (WSJ, December 19, 2019). 

However, it remains too close to call whether the US will have a Democrat President or the White House will continue the confrontational politics of President Trump. At the same time, the Democratic primary's top-tier candidates, such as Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg, may have a hard time defeating President Trump in the general election. The President is still polling exceptionally well among the Republicans, and various surveys from key states like Texas show him doing overwhelmingly as compared to every potential Democratic challenger. According to an American historian and political analyst, Alan Lichtman, “one of the keys pertaining to the identity of the challenging party candidate whether that candidate is a once-in-a-generation, inspirational, charismatic candidates, like a Ronald Reagan or a John F. Kennedy. So far, I don't see anyone in the Democratic field capable of turning that particular key against Donald Trump and the Republicans.” He added that there are chances that metrics might change once the Democratic party announce their nominations. However, in the current scenario, there seem to be none of the prospective candidates that show real inspirational potential across the whole electorate. Having said that, it is also necessary to understand that in the era of President Trump’s unpredictable politics it becomes very difficult to make any definitive predictions.

This is even though the 15 Democratic candidates will be facing several early-voting contests and debates. In addition to this, the Iowa caucus will be held on February 03, 2020, followed by the New Hampshire primary on February 11, 2020, and South Carolina's on February 29, 2020. At the same time, there are also four Democratic debates scheduled in early 2020. The Democratic National Committee recently announced a debate in Iowa on January 14, 2020, one in New Hampshire on February 7, 2020, another in Nevada on February 19, 2020, and a fourth in South Carolina on February 25, 2020. This will help in analysing and making it more crystal clear the chances of the Democrats in the upcoming 2020 elections.
 

Anu Sharma is an Associate Fellow at Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi

*The views expressed here are of the author and does not depict those of the organisation.