Asia Cup 2025 has largely been about one-sided encounters. Even the marquee clash between India and Pakistan barely had any competitive edge to it. Ironically, the most thrilling game so far happened between Sri Lanka and Hong Kong, a game that the former won after nearly self-destructing in the chase. Group A was always a foregone conclusion with India and Pakistan certain to progress to the Super 4s. Oman were incompetent while UAE failed to translate their potential into consistency to threaten the big boys.
However, Group B, as expected, is a closer fight with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan fighting for two spots. Obviously, one of the teams has to miss out and the penultimate league game of the tournament between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan has a lot riding on it. There are quite a lot of permutations and combinations around this fixture. For starters, a win ensures qualification for Afghanistan while a loss means that they are knocked out. This a simple either/or scenario but there is a twist here, one that doesn't concern the Afghans if they win this fixture.
If Afghanistan beat Sri Lanka, then the other spot will be between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It will be settled according to net run rate and this is where Bangladesh might rue their relatively slow finish against Hong Kong. Here is how Bangladesh can qualify for the Super 4s even if Afghanistan beats Sri Lanka. Assuming that the team batting first scores 160, here are the two possibilities that Bangladesh need in their favour. Given that they are bowling first, that narrows down the possibility to a solitary condition. The Lankans should ensure that that get 93 or above, if the target of 160. Then their net run-rate will remain above that of Bangladesh, and ensure a berth in the Super 4s.
Rashid has opted to bat first in their final group stage fixture! 🫡
— AsianCricketCouncil (@ACCMedia1) September 18, 2025
Runs on the board could prove vital in this must-win game and he’ll be counting on his top order to fire. Can Thushara and Chameera strike upfront and put the brakes on? 💥#SLvAFG #DPWorldAsiaCup2025 #ACC pic.twitter.com/5H3okG3Pd5
Bangladesh had a golden opportunity to boost their net run rate against Hong Kong while chasing the target of 144. Skipper Litton Das showed good intent in that fixture with a 39-ball 59 but Towhid Hridoy was surprisingly sedate in his innings, finishing with a 36-ball 35. The latter's innings raised eyebrows and the pundits felt that a bit more intent from his side could have helped Bangladesh to perhaps finish the game a couple of overs earlier. That, as is evident now, could have made a massive difference to the net run rate. When asked about this at the post-match press conference of that fixture, Hridoy had defended the steady approach.
"We could have finished the game earlier but we stuck to the demand of the situation. Our mentality is to always win," said Hridoy. "We wanted to ensure that the match doesn't slip away from us. We tried to end the game early but I couldn't connect the ball that well. I think the result is more important than finishing one or two overs earlier.
"We want to beat Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, so run-rate isn't what we are worried about at this stage. We don't want to complicate matters so early in the tournament," he said.
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"I think we played smart cricket. We could have finished two or three overs earlier, but we could have lost one or two more wickets. We must prioritize partnerships. We tried to hit more boundaries, but it didn't happen," he said.
Unfortunately, Bangladesh weren't able to beat Sri Lanka and now are on the brink of elimination due to the famous net run rate factor.
