Recent events have thrown Iran’s participation in the 2026 World Cup into question. Though it is an evolving situation, it is evident that FIFA has not yet made a decision. The Guardian, citing multiple FIFA sources, have reported that the world governing body is giving itself time until its annual congress in Vancouver on April 30 before a decision.
FIFA statues mandate political and religious neutrality. So, it will not want to be seen as having played a role in forcing Iran out and will therefore try everything to avoid a potential Iranian withdrawal. The nuclear option before FIFA is to take hosting rights away from the US. But, that is almost certainly not going to happen. Not because of the logistical challenge—though a daunting task, FIFA is capable of pulling off a late change of venue. The real reason a change of host is improbable is FIFA’s desire to cosy up to US President Donald Trump, as abundantly illustrated by its president Gianni Infantino. Not to mention, it would be unwise to antagonise the US—it even has a track record of bringing FIFA low. So, US-Mexico-Canada 2026 will go on—with or without Iran.
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If FIFA’s efforts to pacify Iran and get the US to provide assurances fail, it may be forced to find a replacement. In theory, FIFA has sweeping powers to do whatever it wants. So, for instance, it could bring in the highest ranked team to not qualify. As of now, that particular order of precedence is Italy (12th in the November 2025 rankings used for seeding), followed by Denmark (21), Turkey (25), Ukraine (28), Poland (31) and Wales (32), just to name teams in the top 35. But, all these teams are still alive in the European play-off pathways, which will be decided on March 31. However, that also means only one of Italy or Wales can qualify (they are in the same bracket), and the same applies to Ukraine and Poland.
So, going just by rankings (some of these teams are ranked lower now, but the order remains the same) if Italy, Denmark, Turkey and Ukraine qualify, Poland will be the highest ranked team not to qualify for the World Cup. If that materialises, FIFA will have the option to invite Robert Lewandowski and Co back in, using the spot vacated by Iran.
However, while giving Lewandowski a wild card entry into its flagship event is an appealing prospect for FIFA, there are other factors at play. Giving an Asian team’s slot to a European team, while well within FIFA’s rights, would not play well with the teams in the Asian confederation. In the long run, keeping Asian members happy will reap far richer rewards for FIFA compared with any short-term gain from bringing an ageing superstar to a World Cup. Already, Saudi Arabia is FIFA’s biggest benefactor at the moment.
So, any spot vacated by Iran would have to go to Iraq or the UAE. Iraq are still in the play-off pathways and is likely to get in that way. So, that would mean that the UAE qualify, at the cost of Iran. The emirate being a US ally could also play a part in such an outcome. Moreover, the UAE have significant lobbying power. Its sporting operation is a sophisticated machine with parts like the City Football Group and F1.
If that comes to pass, it would mean that the UAE (currently ranked 68th) are invited to their first World Cup in 36 years after failing to qualifying, while nations with a higher footballing pedigree, like Nigeria or Cameroon stay at home. However, this does not end footballing possibilities entirely. Strange things have happened in the history of football. Many a time, the World Cup occasion has lifted sides beyond their expected ceiling. If the UAE gets an opportunity, it may go on to give a good account of itself. But, it will not change the fact that politics gave them an opening and relationships and bargaining power got them in. The World Cup has always been a political event dressed up in a football kit. But, if Iran is replaced this time, especially by the UAE, that would make it tougher to keep pretending.
