US President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran is looking more real than ever following the forced regime change in faraway Venezuela. The US operation against President Nicolás Maduro, a close ally of Iran, is widely seen by Iranian leaders as proof that Trump is willing to use force to remove or pressure hostile governments.
For years, Iranian officials viewed Trump as loud and unpredictable but ultimately cautious. They believed he preferred pressure and threats over real military action and forced regime change. The events in Venezuela have shaken that belief. In Tehran’s eyes, the message is simple: Trump is prepared to act directly if he thinks it serves US interests. As a result, his warnings about Iran now feel more real. When Trump says the United States is “locked and loaded” and ready to respond if Iran kills protesters, Iranian leaders believe this is no longer empty talk. The idea of US strikes, whether through air attacks or targeting senior leaders, now feels closer and more possible.
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This fear is made stronger by Trump’s close cooperation with Israel. The United States and Israel have recently worked together in military action against Iran, including strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during a short conflict in June. Trump has warned that he would greenlight further Israeli attacks if Iran rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes. He has used blunt language, warning that Iran would be hit very hard if it continued down that path. From Tehran’s point of view, this leaves little room for talks. Many in the Iranian leadership believe Washington is no longer interested in compromise and is instead demanding full surrender. This has led some experts to warn that Iran may decide the only way to protect itself is to push faster towards a nuclear weapon, believing this would stop the kind of action taken against Maduro.
At the same time, Trump has become more involved in Iran’s internal crisis. By openly warning Iran not to use deadly force against protesters, he is trying to draw a clear boundary around what the government is allowed to do. While it could give protesters more confidence, it could also lead to a significant escalation by the regime in Tehran. The protesters might expect more help than the US is actually willing to give, and that US warnings could help hardliners by letting them say the protests are supported by foreign countries.
Inside Iran, the protests are mainly about economic concerns. Unlike earlier protests, which focused on social freedoms or political change, these began because people were struggling to make ends meet. Shopkeepers in Tehran were among the first to protest after the country’s currency lost much of its value.
The Iranian rial has lost much of its value, making everyday goods far more expensive. Inflation is around 40 per cent, and recent rises in fuel prices have pushed up the cost of food and transport. For many families, meat, rice and other basics are now out of reach. Economic anger has quickly turned into anger at the entire system.
The unrest has spread widely and quickly. Protests have taken place in dozens of cities making them the largest since the demonstrations that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022. The tone of the protests has also changed fast. What started as complaints about prices has turned into open calls for the fall of the regime. Chants such as “death to the dictator” and “woman, life, freedom” are being heard again. Reports of deaths and large numbers of arrests show how serious the situation has become. Many protesters say they no longer feel afraid. They believe there is no future under the current system and that the government is weaker than ever.
That belief is based partly on clear signs of strain within the state. Iran’s network of regional allies, often called the Axis of Resistance, has been badly weakened since 2023. Important groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have suffered serious losses, reducing Iran’s ability to project its power in the region. The war with Israel in June and US strikes on nuclear sites have also left Iran much weaker. The losses suffered by the regime have shaken public confidence and have emboldened protesters to challenge the rulers.
Moreover, a rift is visible at the upper echelons of the ruling elite. While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei still follows a rigid hardline, President Masoud Pezeshkian appears more amenable to public grievances, even conceding the need for dialogue and reform. These factors seem to have created a dangerous moment. Add to these Trump’s willingness to use force abroad, and Iran could be in for further challenging days ahead.
