Is Iran running out of water? Inside the nation's unprecedented drought

Iran is facing its sixth straight year of drought, and the crisis has reached a point that the country’s president has warned of possible evacuations and water rationing in Tehran. Experts say the scale and persistence of the drought are unprecedented. Although the country is naturally semi-arid, the past two water years have been among the driest on record. Till November, Iran received only a fraction of its usual rainfall for the year, and meteorological agencies reported that this autumn was the driest in half a century. The lack of precipitation has combined with extreme heat during the summer when temperatures surpassed 50 degrees Celsius, conditions that have been strongly linked to climate change.

The consequences are visible across the country. Nineteen dams are close to drying out as their reserves have fallen below five per cent of capacity, more than double the number from only a few weeks earlier. About a tenth of all reservoirs can now be considered empty. While Tehran attracts much of the attention, the shortages go far beyond the capital. Still, the situation in the city is particularly worrying because it has rarely faced such scarcity before and because it is home to more than ten million people within the city limits and around fifteen million across the wider metropolitan area. 

The five principal dams supplying Tehran are at critical lows with an average capacity of about ten per cent. The Kan River, which carries water from the slopes of the Alborz Mountains to the plain surrounding Tehran, has dried up completely. Elsewhere, the picture is equally bleak. Around 20 provinces have not seen rain since the onset of the rainy season in late September. Mashhad, the second largest city, is grappling with storage levels in its dams that have dropped below three per cent. Reservoirs in West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Markazi are also in a worrying state and Lake Urmia has largely disappeared leaving behind a wide salt bed. 

Iran is now widely described as being in a state of water bankruptcy. Surface water has been drained, and groundwater aquifers are being over-exploited far faster than they can recover. Excessive pumping has produced land subsidence and environmental degradation in central regions, including Isfahan and in southeastern provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan. 

The roots of the crisis lie not only in the changing climate but also in decades of poor management and unrealistic policies. Successive governments pursued agricultural self-sufficiency in response to political pressure and Western sanctions. Legislation requires that most of the national food supply be produced domestically. As a result, more than ninety per cent of the country’s available water is consumed by agriculture, much of it through inefficient irrigation and the cultivation of unsuitable crops. Irrigated farmland has roughly doubled since the 1979 revolution despite the limited water resources available. 

Infrastructure problems, especially old and poorly maintained distribution systems, are another problem as they leak vast quantities of treated water. Estimates indicate that about 30 per cent of drinking water is lost before it reaches consumers, with physical leaks and illegal use accounting for much of the waste. In Tehran alone, failures in the network may account for more than a third of all losses. 

Public frustration has grown. Commentators in local media have criticised environmental decision-making that appears driven by politics rather than expertise and have condemned the appointment of unqualified managers. There are also political accusations, as some critics say construction firms linked to the all-powerful Revolutionary Guards are building unnecessary dams for personal gain and promoting costly water transfers. 

Officials have introduced a series of short-term measures. The energy minister has announced that rationing will be imposed and full night-time shutoffs may be introduced if conditions worsen. Heavy users in cities will be penalised. President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that Tehran may have to enforce strict rationing within weeks and that evacuation could be considered if no rains arrive. The government is also turning to technological fixes such as desalination and large-scale water transfers. In recent months, authorities have increased cloud seeding in several provinces, dispersing chemicals into clouds in an attempt to trigger rain. Experts caution that such interventions offer limited benefit and fail to address long-term structural failings. Citizens have been asked to cut household consumption by 20 per cent, although domestic use accounts for less than eight per cent of national demand, underscoring that personal restraint alone cannot resolve the crisis. Many worshippers have gathered at mosques to pray for rain, which reflects both concern and a sense of helplessness. 

The social and political consequences are becoming more severe. Water shortages have already contributed to local unrest. If drought conditions persist, there could be popular protests, as it happened in 2021, especially in the light of growing inflation, unemployment, economic downturn and the illiberal political environment. The longer the comprehensive reform is postponed, the fewer viable options remain. 

Many Iranians have begun preparing for the worst. Authorities have advised households to purchase storage tanks, and residents have been stocking up. Some families in Tehran have arranged for private tanker deliveries to build reserves in case water supplies are cut off entirely. Millions have already endured unannounced outages during the summer months.