With the tensions escalating between Tehran and Tel Aviv, the militant groups in Iran could become emboldened by the rare opportunity laid before them. The Shia-majority nation has not only to deal with religious minorities like Sunnis, but also ethnic minorities like the Baloch and the Kurds. In fact, most of the Baloch and Kurds are Sunnis, often suppressed by the Shiite regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Pakistan raises alarm with Trump
Israel and later US President Donald Trump has hinted at overthrowing the Ayatollah regime, setting off alarms in Islamabad. During his recent meeting with Trump, Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir raised concerns about separatist militants on Iranian border taking advantage of the situation. Most ethnic Baloch people are concentrated on the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan and the Pakistani province of Balochistan.
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has been carrying out deadly attacks on Pakistani military in the recent months, including the hijacking of Jaffar Express train.
"There’s a fear of ungoverned spaces, which would be fertile ground for terrorist groups," Reuters quoted Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, as saying.
Another key outfit feared by both Islamabad and Tehran is Jaish al-Adl, a Pakistan-based Iranian separatist militant group comprising ethnic Baloch people. The outfit recently said the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel is a great opportunity.
"Jaish al-Adl extends the hand of brotherhood and friendship to all the people of Iran and calls on all people, especially the people of Baluchistan, as well as the armed forces, to join the ranks of the Resistance," Jaish al-Adl stated.
However, what is even more alarming is the prospect of Baloch militants on both sides of the borders teaming up to coordinate attacks against their respective regimes. “They’re all going to fight together if this blows up,” said Simbal Khan, an analyst based in Islamabad, told Reuters, warning of a "greater Balochistan" movement.
The Baloch people are spread across Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Baloch make 3.6 per cent of Pakistani population and 2 per cent of people in Iran and Afghanistan.
Kurds in Iran wants regime change
Iran has around 10 to 12 million Kurds, who form around 15 per cent of the country's population. They are also minorities in Iraq, Syria and Turkey. While Turkey has suppressed the Kurdish militants in its territory, the Kurds in Syria are resisting attacks by the Ahmed al-Sharaa regime and Turkey-backed Islamists. The Kurds in Iraq are better off compared to their brethren in Syria, Turkey and Iran as they enjoy autonomous powers in northern Iraq.
Iranian Kurdish parties have reportedly urged people to make use of the opportunity and "end this regime". “As long as this regime remains in power, the situation will only deteriorate,” the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) stated on June 13. "Therefore, the first and most important prerequisite for saving Iran's citizens from this crisis, destruction and darkness is to completely remove and end this regime."
