The crossover of Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs to the Shinde faction is almost certain now after six of its nine Lok Sabha MPs skipped its parliamentary party meeting held on Thursday. Of the nine MPs, only Arvind Sawant, Anil Desai and Rajabhau Waje attended the meeting, along with Sanjay Raut, the party's lone Rajya Sabha MP.
The MPs who skipped the meeting are Nagesh Aashtikar, Sanjay Deshmukh, Sanjay Jadhav, Sanjay Dina Patil, Omprakash Rajenimbalkar and Bhausaheb Wakchaure.
While the party has issued a show-cause notice to these MPs, reports hint that all six dissident MPs have signed a letter seeking a merger with the Shinde-led Sena and submitted it to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Though the process is pending, the Speaker’s office is sitting on it due to verification issues, and the approval could come soon.
Once the crossover happens, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde will emerge as one of the most powerful leaders in the NDA, with 13 MPs on his side. At present, the BJP has 240 MPs, while the Telugu Desam Party has 16 and the JD(U) has 12 MPs. Shinde’s party, which had only seven till now, will now occupy the fourth position with 13 MPs, just below the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI), a previously obscure and unrecognised regional political party that made national headlines when 20 rebel Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs merged with it, and the TDP.
The central government is in dire need of more MPs to get the Lok Sabha-Assembly constituency reorganisation and women's reservation bill passed. The six MPs brought by Shinde will not only increase the NDA's strength in the Lok Sabha, but also boost Shinde’s bargaining power.
The BJP will have to be more accommodating of him in Maharashtra, where he is the deputy chief minister, as well. Shinde is almost certain to seek more space, thereby exacerbating Chief Minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis's difficulties.
According to Sanjay Patil, political observer and research assistant at Mumbai University, this will alter political equations in the state. “The immediate loss will obviously be Uddhav Thackeray’s. But the bigger political impact may be elsewhere. If Shinde’s numbers rise in Parliament, the state leadership of the BJP can no longer look at him the same way it has after the Assembly elections,” Patil told The Indian Express.
Shinde has always shown his displeasure to the state BJP leadership, including when the BJP demoted him as the Deputy Chief Minister after the Mahayuti coalition won the Assembly Elections under his leadership, citing the number of seats. Though a second in charge, Shinde’s importance within the BJP alliance has diminished from what it once was before the 2024 assembly elections. His supporters also believe that falling behind in the numerical arithmetic has diminished his influence.
At present, Fadnavis has complete control over the state government. From the allocation of portfolios to ministers to appointments to corporations and boards, Chief Minister Fadnavis has the final say in every decision. That won’t be the same anymore.
