The striking and unexpected victory of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician C. Joseph Vijay, in the recent assembly elections, has not only reshaped Tamil Nadu’s political landscape but also thrown the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the state’s two major Dravidian parties, into an unprecedented existential crisis.
Once the undisputed powerhouse of Tamil Nadu politics, the AIADMK’s performance in the recent elections—securing only 47 seats, nearly two dozen fewer than in the previous term—signals a significant decline in its political influence, despite the potential advantage of an anti-incumbency sentiment against the M.K. Stalin government. The disappointing performance has sparked a major internal rift, with a faction led by senior leaders S.P. Velumani and C. Ve Shanmugam openly challenging General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s leadership and backing Vijay to form the new government.
On May 13, the Palaniswami faction approached Assembly Speaker J.C.D. Prabhakar to seek the disqualification of 25 party MLAs who had defied the party whip by voting in favour of Vijay during the trust vote. The AIADMK chief accused these MLAs of betrayal and removed them from party positions, claiming their actions were deliberate and motivated by personal gain.
Rebel leader Shanmugam fired back, accusing Palaniswami of undermining a longstanding party principle by entertaining a potential alignment with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)—the AIADMK’s long-standing rival, with whom any alliance is considered unthinkable. He cited the DMK-orchestrated “false case” that had led to late party suremo and former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa’s imprisonment, to underscore Palaniswami’s alleged deviation from the party’s legacy of loyalty and opposition.
“He seems to have forgotten all of this. Now, you can decide who the real betrayer is,” Shanmugam told reporters earlier this week.
The recent developments suggest that the AIADMK is facing yet another inevitable split at a time when its electoral fortunes in Tamil Nadu are steadily declining, largely due to Palaniswami's alleged political brinkmanship and missteps. The former CM not only failed to fill the void left by Jayalalithaa but also pushed the party into a precarious position, struggling to remain politically relevant. The party is currently confronting significant challenges on two fronts: electorally, it is witnessing a shift in support among key voter segments, particularly women, toward Vijay’s TVK, while internally, the party is grappling with heightened leadership ambitions and factional tensions.
AIADMK’s gradual decline began after the demise of Jayalalithaa, who helmed the party for nearly two-and-a-half decades. Having successfully navigated political turmoil and internal rifts following the death of party founder M.G. Ramachandran, Jayalalithaa had positioned the AIADMK as a formidable challenger to the DMK, creating a largely bipolar political landscape in the state.
However, her demise in 2016 while being in office left a significant leadership vacuum, triggering a scramble among multiple claimants to her legacy. This contest weakened the party both politically and electorally. Although senior leader O. Panneerselvam was initially appointed Chief Minister, a power struggle between him and Palaniswami was imminent. Jayalalithaa's close confidante V.K. Sasikala, who assumed the role of party General Secretary, replaced Panneerselvam and installed Palaniswami as Chief Minister, leading the party to a virtual split.
Even after Sasikala resigned from her party post following her conviction in the disproportionate assets case, rival factions continued to engage in legal battles over control of party symbols, funds, and organisational machinery. In 2017, a temporary reconciliation was reached with the merger of the two factions, leading to dual leadership in the party and Panneerselvam’s appointment as Deputy Chief Minister with key portfolios. Following the merger, the AIADMK general council formally annulled Sasikala’s appointment as General Secretary and expelled her from the party. Prior to this, the party had already removed T.T.V. Dhinakaran from the position of Deputy General Secretary, a post he had been given by Sasikala before her imprisonment.
The truce between Palaniswami and Panneerselvam proved to be fragile from the outset. In the years that followed, the AIADMK continued to grapple with intense internal power struggles, marked by street protests and protracted legal battles. Palaniswami ultimately consolidated his hold over the party, sidelining Panneerselvam and keeping Sasikala’s influence at bay. Panneerselvam, a seasoned leader who had served multiple terms as Chief Minister—including during periods when Jayalalithaa was barred from office—was formally expelled from the AIADMK in July 2022. By February 2026, he resigned as a Member of the Legislative Assembly and joined the DMK.
Years of internal turbulence and political missteps have taken a heavy toll on the AIADMK. In the 2019 general elections, contested in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party managed to win only one of the 22 seats it contested, its Lok Sabha strength plummeting from 37 to a mere single seat. The decline continued in the 2021 state elections, when the AIADMK’s assembly tally fell sharply to 66 from 136 in the previous legislature. Tensions with the BJP further strained the alliance, particularly after the rise of K. Annamalai, whose statements drew criticism from AIADMK leaders. In 2023, the AIADMK abruptly parted ways with the BJP—a move seen by many as an opportunity for the party leadership to assert its political determination and strength. However, the AIADMK faced further humiliation in the 2024 general elections, failing to win a single seat.
Palaniswami’s decision to revive a pre-poll alliance with the BJP for the 2026 assembly elections, alongside T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and Anbumani Ramadoss’s Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) faction, failed to deliver electoral gains. The AIADMK was reduced to 47 seats, while its allies secured only six.
The electoral drubbing has exposed fractures in Palaniswami’s leadership, with internal dissenters, including K.P. Anbazhagan and C. Vijayabaskar, openly challenging his authority. The breakaway faction has petitioned the Assembly Speaker to take action against Palaniswami and 21 legislators for defying the “party whip” during the confidence vote. The conflict has also manifested in public confrontations, as supporters of the rival factions clashed in Villupuram, requiring police intervention.
All eyes now are on the Assembly Speaker, who has indicated that a decision on the disqualification request from the two rival AIADMK factions will be taken in due course. Regardless of the outcome, Palaniswami’s leadership faces significant challenges, as repeated internal rebellions have significantly weakened the party’s cohesion. Whether he can rebuild the AIADMK into a unified and electorally competitive force remains to be seen.
