In the afterglow of the UDF’s landslide victory in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections—ending a decade of LDF rule, with the Congress alone bagging 63 seats—the party has already begun to squander the glory of that mandate. What should have been a victory lap has instead turned into a messy, very public power struggle over the chief minister’s post. Three heavyweights are now locked in combat: outgoing Leader of Opposition V.D. Satheesan, AICC General Secretary K.C. Venugopal, and veteran leader Ramesh Chennithala.
Here are the most plausible scenarios and shrewd strategies that could come into play in the coming hours and days.
Grassroots revolts to new groupism
Satheesan, who steered the party’s aggressive poll campaign, has the fewest MLA-elects backing him as their first choice for the CM post---though his camp claims 35 out of 63---but he enjoys maximum support among key allies and the general public.
Posters and rallies in districts like Kannur, Malappuram, Ernakulam, and Kozhikode are already backing him. If the high command overrides this sentiment and hands the CM post to Venugopal, street protests could intensify, as Satheesan’s camp would portray him as the betrayed hero who delivered the mandate only to be sidelined.
There are indications that Satheesan may refuse to take any portfolio and instead remain an ordinary MLA if Venugopal becomes the CM. But a more lethal move could be Satheesan resigning from his MLA post itself, under the pretext of inviting Venugopal to contest from the Paravoor seat.
Venugopal, who is currently an MP, would have to resign, contest, and win an Assembly seat within the next six months if he becomes chief minister. If Satheesan makes such a strategic move, Venugopal could be trapped into contesting from Paravoor, which could very well result in a heavy defeat.
Notably, even if Satheesan does not go to that extent, his decision to stay out of the cabinet and remain a rebel could create a dangerous situation for Venugopal even in perceived “safe seats” where he may contest Assembly bypolls. However, the K.C. camp hopes that once he assumes power and begins delivering stable governance, people will eventually forget the current mess.
However, Venugopal would have to resign from the Alappuzha Lok Sabha constituency to assume the CM post. Notably, in the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP—though finishing third—registered the largest jump in vote share in the constituency, gaining 11.06 percentage points. While Venugopal won the sitting seat from the LDF, the Left’s vote share dropped by 8.76 percentage points compared to 2019, while the Congress too witnessed a decline of 1.8 percentage points.
If the BJP manages to build on this momentum and even pulls off a win in the constituency in a bypoll, K.C. could face the blame for handing yet another Parliament seat to the BJP. Earlier too, a Rajya Sabha seat from Rajasthan, vacated by Venugopal before the completion of his term to contest the Lok Sabha polls, eventually went to the BJP.
Notably, V.D. Satheesan’s supporters are invoking the Wadakkancherry precedent in their poster war—recalling how K. Muraleedharan, who resigned as KPCC state president to become a minister in the A.K. Antony ministry in February 2004, went on to lose the subsequent bypoll. There are already strong signs that a UDF government could be burdened by a new kind of factional war, regardless of whether K.C. or Satheesan ultimately becomes the chief minister.
As of now, Chennithala appears to be in the weakest position in the race for the CM post, despite his claims based on seniority. However, the situation could turn upside down if K.C. finally decides to back out while also attempting to block V.D. Satheesan from becoming the CM. Whether Satheesan would accept such a compromise and take up a top portfolio in such a cabinet, however, remains to be seen.
Moreover, if Chennithala fails to establish a strong hold over the government, such a “compromise CM” arrangement could still lead to parallel power centres, resulting in policy drift and public disillusionment within months. A similar situation could emerge even if Satheesan becomes Chief Minister, especially if those backing K.C. continue to operate as a separate power bloc.
The party high command is expected to arrive at a decision on the CM post either late today or by tomorrow. But if the leadership drags its feet in the name of “consultations,” more posters, counter-posters, social media wars, and even physical clashes among UDF cadres could erupt. Allies too may grow impatient—already, the fight over the CM post has triggered friction between Congress section backing KC and the IUML.
The LDF, now in the opposition, and the BJP are both likely to exploit the chaos, portraying the Congress as power-hungry and unfit to govern despite the mandate. The Congress is now facing a test of whether it can govern a state it has painfully won back. High command intervention may install a Chief Minister, but it cannot magically create unity.
