As the dispute over the chief ministerial post in the Congress in Kerala intensifies, UDF chairman V.D. Satheesan has reportedly hardened his stance.
There are strong indications that Satheesan informed the high command observers, Ajay Maken and Mukul Wasnik, that if he is not given the chief minister’s post, he does not want any other position, and will not agree to any compromise formula.
Notably, AICC general secretary (organisation) K. C. Venugopal’s camp maintains that it has the backing of the largest bloc among the Congress’s 63 MLA-elects. The Satheesan camp claims support from around 35 MLAs.
Meanwhile, senior leader and former Opposition Leader Ramesh Chennithala is also staking claim to the CM post, citing both his seniority and the support of more than 23 MLAs.
Satheesan, who led the UDF in the Assembly polls, has reportedly taken a firm stand that if he is denied the CM post, he is unwilling to serve as a minister handling any other department, and is prepared to continue merely as an MLA.
Earlier, Satheesan rejected the compromise formula proposed by K. Sudhakaran and reportedly under consideration by the high command. The formula aimed to make K.C. Venugopal the chief minister, while accommodating V.D. Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala in the cabinet with key portfolios. However, Satheesan has clarified that he is unwilling to accept such compromises.
UDF allies such as the Indian Union Muslim League, Kerala Congress, and Revolutionary Socialist Party are understood to support Satheesan’s claim.
However, the camp backing K. C. Venugopal—who wields immense influence within the party organisation in Kerala—argues that neither allies nor outsiders should decide the Chief Minister, but only the MLA-elects of Congress.
The Satheesan camp claims that V.D. Satheesan’s greatest strength is the image he has gained as the leader who guided the alliance to a resounding electoral victory building ‘Team UDF’.
It also hopes that the high command cannot ignore the reality that both the wider public and coalition partners prefer Satheesan’s leadership. His camp argues that a person without the support of coalition partners would not be able to effectively lead the government.
Notably, the K.C. Venugopal camp dismisses the perceived public support for Satheesan—as well as the social media campaigns projecting him as CM—as a PR-driven exercise.
A flex-board and narrative campaign is being pushed by all three camps. Satheesan appears to be placing his trust in the belief that the high command cannot turn a blind eye to the mass support he enjoys in the aftermath of the elections, especially in the context of a clear electoral wave.
Satheeshan’s camp is driving a campaign that requests civil society organisations, the general public, and affiliates to write an appeal to the Congress leadership in favour of their leader.
The Satheesan camp also hopes that the high command will take into account the crises and setbacks the party faced in several states after imposing its own nominees as chief ministers without adequately considering public sentiment.
The Satheeshan camp is also arguing that the high command would contradict its own earlier stand against fielding MPs in the Assembly elections if it now allows K. C. Venugopal—currently the MP from Alappuzha—to become the chief minister without considering any of the 63 elected MLAs.
Interestingly, Satheesan’s current position—that he will not accept any cabinet post if denied the CM position—is seen as a mirror of the stance he reportedly adopted during the seat-allocation stage.
Satheesan had strongly opposed MPs contesting the Assembly elections, arguing that it would create a bad precedent and provoke public resentment by forcing unnecessary by-elections on the people. At the time, Satheesan reportedly maintained that if MPs were allowed to contest, he would stay away from the campaign and let K.C. Venugopal or any other MP lead the campaign on the ground.
This pressure tactic is believed to have influenced the high command’s eventual decision not to field MPs in the Kerala Assembly polls. Now, that very decision has become a key argument in the hands of the Satheesan camp.
After the 2021 election, when the Opposition Leader post was being decided, Ramesh Chennithala reportedly enjoyed the support of a larger number of MLAs. However, the high command ultimately chose Satheesan for the role.
In the current crisis too, the final decision is expected to rest with the high command. The observer team is meeting each MLA-elect individually today. The next stage of the process involves discussions and analysis by the high command in Delhi on Saturday.
However, there are clear indications that the internal friction could spill onto the streets as well if an amicable solution is not reached. Interestingly, a past example from the Congress’s political rival, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), has also resurfaced amid the ongoing power struggle.
Back in 2006, when the CPI(M) Politburo decided not to field then Opposition Leader V. S. Achuthanandan—who was locked in a factional battle with the Pinarayi Vijayan-led official faction—a massive backlash erupted across Kerala from both cadres and the public. Within 12 days, the Politburo was forced to reverse its decision.
The Satheesan camp is believed to be calculating that a similar situation could emerge now as well, and that the high command would not be able to turn a blind eye to a popular mobilisation not only in favour of V.D. Satheesan, but also against a situation in which people are effectively forced into facing two elections—one Assembly by-election and one Lok Sabha by-election—if K. C. Venugopal is ultimately chosen by the high command as the CM.
