While all attention was focused on West Bengal, where the last phase of polling is yet to take place, the political theatre shifted to a state where polls are due next year: Punjab.
The decision of AAP's Rajya Sabha MPs from Punjab, Raghav Chadha, Sandeep Pathak, Ashok Mittal, Rajendra Gupta, Harbhajan Singh, Vikram Sawhney, and Swati Maliwal (Delhi) to merge their faction with the BJP is a setback for the 15-year-old party, at a time when it will have to defend its government in Punjab, where polls are due in 2017. The AAP was also planning to expand its base in Gujarat and Goa, where polls are also due next year, and has the BJP as its main opponent.
Barring Chadha and Pathak, the other AAP MPs had little political role within the party before they went to the upper house. Their nomination as MPs had invited criticism that the party, which swept the polls in Punjab, had used the opportunity to send mostly industrialists to the Rajya Sabha instead of party cadre. Now that they have left, no tears are likely to be shed within the party.
The real jolt for the party comes from Chadha and Pathak, particularly the latter. Chadha was the party's articulate face in Delhi, presenting its position during TV discussions since the days of the anti-corruption movement. He had been elected as MLA from Delhi before he was sent to the Rajya Sabha from Punjab. He wielded immense power in Punjab, often called the super CM. It was only with time that his profile weakened within the party, particularly after he was not in Delhi when Kejriwal was arrested in the liquor scam.
Even more shocking was Pathak shifting his loyalties. Even in his words at the last press conference, he thanked Kejriwal for the opportunity and wished the party well, saying that political parties should survive in a democracy. Pathak was the backroom boy who was good with numbers and crunching data that gave the party a headway in Punjab. The victory in the border state was also because of him, many state party leaders had said. He even held a powerful party position—general secretary of the organisation.
But as the details emerge, it is clear that the party had sidelined him since the party's loss in Delhi.
In terms of heft, the AAP may have lost its numerical strength in the upper house. But the real test would be if any of its Lok Sabha MPs or MLAs switch sides in the run-up to the polls, as they would be the ones with direct touch with the electorate.
If there is despondency in AAP over another set of leaders leaving the party, the BJP is upbeat as it builds its base in Punjab. A few weeks earlier, the former leader of the Opposition in Punjab, also a former AAP MLA, H.S. Phulka, had joined the BJP. Phulka, a lawyer, is known for his work among the victims of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.
As the BJP has announced its decision to contest the Punjab polls alone, it needs more credible faces to contest. What has happened with the seven AAP MPs joining the BJP may not be the end; many turncoats will be heading to the party, as was seen in states where the BJP did not have much of a base but changed the situation through defections.
For the Bhagwant Mann government, the next year will be crucial. It has several challenges before it. It is only once, since 1966 and the reorganisation of states, that a state government has won a consecutive tenure.
