India is bracing for a very direct impact of the 'Super El Niño'—an exceptionally powerful warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that triggers intense global weather shifts.
What it portends is a disaster in the making: a bad monsoon this year for India.
Skymet Weather has already announced a temperate April with spells of rain in some parts of North India—that’s bad news for the agriculture sector, as it could lead to something even worse: below normal rainfall in the crucial July-September monsoon season.
The India Meteorology Department (IMD) has also hinted at the same, though it is not offering too many details until the formal monsoon briefing expected later this month.
The signs are everywhere. From the streets of Delhi, where residents shivered through a January-like chill even in April, to the golden wheat fields of Punjab, now flattened by unseasonal hailstorms just days before the harvest, the human and economic toll is mounting.
Scientific experts have noted that these sudden weather swings are no longer mere anomalies, but signals of a deeper, long-term disruption that is driving food prices to "endemic" levels and threatening the very foundations of the nation’s food security.
The national capital, Delhi, has been fluctuating through hot and cold spells, including spells of rain that would brought temperatures down to 17º in April—which is usually when summer announces its presence, with temperatures nearing 40º.
The impact is even more devastating in India’s "food bowl" states, where the timing of weather events is critical to the survival of the harvest. In April 2026, unseasonal hailstorms and heavy rain wiped out crops in Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana just as they were ready for harvest.
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan recently stated that these events had dislodged ripening crops, which not only dents farm incomes, but also raises the risk of inflation.
Experts have noted that such weather leads to "lodging", where strong winds flatten standing crops, and "grain shattering", where hail breaks the wheat grains apart, reducing their quality.
Prof Shreekant Gupta, an academic with Ahmedabad University who is researching climate change, told a media outlet recently that conventional models systematically underestimate these effects.
His research indicates that a 1°C rise in temperature has a much stronger and more enduring adverse effect on yields than previously thought, as damage from climatic shocks displays "persistence" over several seasons.
This agricultural crisis has moved directly into the kitchens of every Indian household, making basic nutrition a luxury for the most vulnerable.
A report from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted that climate change is now the dominant force making food inflation "endemic" in India, with supply disruptions caused by erratic weather driving up the cost of basic staples.
Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra flagged that rising food prices raise the risk of severe stunting in newborns and infants, as marginalised communities are deterred from being able to afford healthy, nutritious diets.
Looking ahead, the potential development of the Super El Niño by late 2026 poses even greater risks, with forecasts suggesting it could further suppress India's vital monsoon rainfall and trigger more extreme weather events—from floods to prolonged droughts.
