No one has a greater stake in the Nilambur assembly bypoll than former MLA P.V. Anvar. The crucial poll—now being projected as a ‘quarter-final’ ahead of the fast-approaching local body elections and the 2026 assembly polls—was necessitated by his resignation. Anvar, who won the seat in 2016 and 2021 as an LDF-backed Independent, parted ways with the Left Democratic Front after a fallout with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
There’s no doubt that Anvar aspires to be the kingmaker in Nilambur, positioning himself as someone with the charismatic backing of the electorate to sway the bypoll outcome. But at this stage, his efforts appear more focused on staging a final showdown to remain politically relevant than on playing kingmaker.
After breaking with the LDF, Anvar briefly floated the Democratic Movement of Kerala—a short-lived initiative. His status as an Independent limited his access to organisational resources, while joining a minor Kerala-based party risked further marginalisation in the state’s bipolar LDF-UDF political landscape. That’s when Anvar joined the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The party offered him a national platform to continue his “anti-Pinarayist” campaign. While it provided a political identity, the TMC’s weak presence in Kerala gave Anvar the space to shape its state agenda, granting him autonomy to pursue his own goals.
Meanwhile, Anvar continued to project himself as a crusader for local issues in Nilambur. He identified the escalating human-wildlife conflict as a key issue and sought to use it to mount a narrative offensive against the state government.
He also began rebuilding ties with the UDF leadership, particularly with Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan. However, Anvar’s hopes for a smooth re-entry into the UDF did not materialise. And now his efforts to block Aryadan Shoukath from becoming the UDF candidate for the bypoll have also failed.
Anvar had pushed for DCC president V.S. Joy instead, a preference driven by a mix of strategic, demographic, and personal considerations tied to his political ambitions and the constituency’s dynamics. It seems Anvar calculated that Joy, a district-level leader, was perceived as more receptive to his guidance compared to Shoukath, whose prominence—as the son of late Congress leader Aryadan Muhammed and a close associate of senior UDF leaders—made him less pliable.
Community dynamics also seemed to have played a role in Anvar’s stance. In the Nilambur constituency, where the Muslim minority forms the largest voter bloc, both Anvar and Shoukath compete for influence within the same demographic. Supporting Joy was therefore also a tactical move to block Shoukath’s candidacy and consolidate Anvar’s sway over the Muslim electorate. Incidentally, Anvar accused the UDF of taking a “unilateral” decision in choosing Shoukath, claiming that Joy lacked a “political godfather”—a clear indication that Anvar believed Joy’s candidacy would have given him greater leverage over the UDF’s Nilambur strategy. After the Congress officially named Shoukath as its candidate, Anvar launched an open attack on the latter, even alleging that Shoukath had once attempted to contest as an Independent backed by the CPI(M).
But, with the UDF leadership standing firm on its decision to field Shoukath—and Joy himself publicly backing Shoukath’s candidacy—Anvar has intensified his pressure tactics, now pushing hard for the TMC’s inclusion as a full-fledged ally in the UDF. Anvar has made it clear that he is not content with TMC being merely an associate of the UDF; he wants it to be a formal constituent of the alliance. He continues to apply pressure by hinting that a TMC candidate may enter the electoral fray for Nilambur. At the same time, Anvar is banking on support from influential leaders within the Indian Union Muslim League, especially P.K. Kunhalikutty, and former KPCC president K. Sudhakaran, to facilitate TMC’s entry into the UDF.
However, Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan responded tactically, shifting the onus onto Anvar by stating that it is up to him to decide his stance in the assembly bypoll. “The Congress unanimously decided to field Shoukath. Anvar has raised objections. It is his personal decision whether to cooperate with the UDF’s decision. Once he makes that decision, the UDF will make its own,” said Satheesan.
Though Anvar is now making a last-minute effort to meet UDF leaders, Satheesan’s remarks make it clear that the UDF is not willing to yield to Anvar’s pressure politics. This leaves Anvar at a crossroads—either retreat from his pressure tactics and fall in line with the UDF, or go ahead and field a TMC candidate, thereby jeopardising the UDF’s chances. But that too is a risky path, as Anvar’s larger political enemy remains the CPI(M) under CM Vijayan.
Interestingly, the LDF has delayed announcing its candidate for Nilambur by three days—suggesting that the Left is closely monitoring Anvar’s moves and may be waiting for the most opportune moment to act, possibly capitalising on any signs of desperation from his end. CPI(M) leaders have openly stated they want to see Anvar fade into political irrelevance. In the coming days, it will become clear whether Anvar will make a self-destructive political move that pushes him into permanent irrelevance in Kerala politics, or surrender unconditionally to the UDF.
