Why rebellion within JD(U) over its support for Waqf Bill will not hurt Nitish Kumar in the upcoming Assembly elections

Muslim leaders are quitting JD(U) accusing Nitish Kumar of betraying Muslims by backing the Waqf Bill

40-Nitish-Kumar Representational image

The JD(U)'s decision to back the Waqf (Amendment) Bill in Lok Sabha has triggered a rebellion within the party, with Muslim leaders ditching the party, after expressing disappointment over party chief and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's stance.

JD(U) national general secretary and former Rajya Sabha member Ghulam Rasool Baliyawi and JD(U) MLC Ghulam Gaus resigned from the party's primary membership along with few other local leaders, accusing Nitish of betraying Muslims despite the community putting faith in him as the flag-bearer of secular ideology.

The rebellion didn't come exactly as a surprise, considering that the Muslim leader and organisations had boycotted Nitish's Iftaar party last week as a mark of protest against the party's move.  

However, the JD(U) remains unperturbed as it claims none of these leaders held any stronghold within the party of the people.

The rebellion, many political analysts believe, is unlikely to have any impact in the upcoming Assembly elections too, as the Muslim community had been drifting away from JD(U) ever since he joined hands with the BJP in 2017 to form Mahagadbandhan. Despite this, the JD(U) won 16 out of the 17 seats it contested in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The JD(U) also managed to retain power in the 2020 Assembly elections. Though Nitish had fielded 11 Muslim candidates then, none won, forcing Nitish to give the Muslim quota in his Cabinet to LJP's Jama Khan. The recent Lok Sabha elections also saw the JD(U) sweeping the state. 

Even the JD(U) top brass are aware that 'Muslims do not vote for JDU.' MP Devesh Chandra Thakur too said 'they did not get votes from Yadavs and Muslims.' 

Interestingly, even the Opposition RJ(D) is unlikely to benefit from Muslims straying from JD(U). During the last Assembly elections, the RJD did not gain much despite the strong Muslim-Yadav axis, even facing defeat in many Muslim and Yadav-dominated areas. In the 2020 elections where Muslims parted ways with JD(U), the RJD only got 23.2 per cent votes.

On the other hand, the Waqf Bill could trigger polarisation in the Muslim votes with Owaisi's AIMIM and Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj managing to make inroads in Bihar. This could take away votes that could have otherwise gone into RJD. 

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