The BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been arguing that the party's victory in four state elections on Thursday was an indicator of the direction of the Lok Sabha polls scheduled to be held in 2024.
Modi had arrived at the BJP's headquarters in Delhi on Thursday after counting trends indicated the BJP was on its way to retaining power in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
“… political pundits, who did not think much of the party’s 2019 (Lok Sabha) win saying it had already been decided by the 2017 UP results, will now have the courage to say that the 2022 (UP) results have decided the 2024 (Lok Sabha) results,” Modi was quoted as saying by The Indian Express.
However, election strategist Prashant Kishor disagreed with Modi's assessment. Kishor was part of the team that conceptualised Modi's strategy for his maiden Parliamentary poll victory in 2014, which resulted in a single party winning a simple majority in India after 30 years.
Kishor tweeted on Friday morning that results of the state elections were not indicative of the trends for 2024. Kishor tweeted “Battle for India will be fought and decided in 2024 & not in any state #elections Saheb knows this! Hence this clever attempt to create frenzy around state results to establish a decisive psychological advantage over opposition. Don’t fall or be part of this false narrative.” Saheb is a term used to describe Modi.
Interestingly, in an interview with NDTV in January, Kishor had made the same point. Kishor said “It is quite possible that BJP wins everything in this round and still go on to lose 2024. In 2012, UP was won by SP (Samajwadi Party), Uttarakhand by Congress, Manipur by Congress, Punjab by Akalis, but the result in 2014 was very different.”
Kishor noted the BJP had only a marginal presence in south India and states such as Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha, which collectively accounted for around 200 Lok Sabha seats. He told NDTV if the Congress or an alliance of parties could “realign themselves, and reboot their resources and strategy,” they could reach “250-260 even with the present numbers”. He explained the opposition parties needed to win “100 seats in the north and west”.
However, Kishor cautioned that opposition parties merely coming together would not be enough. “You need to have the narrative and a coherent outfit,” Kishor told NDTV.
