For the first time since the loss of statehood and limited autonomy, Jammu and Kashmir is witnessing heightened political activity, largely in Jammu’s Muslim majority areas falling under Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal range.
The Chenab Valley comprises the districts of Doda, Ramban, and Kishtwar while Pir Panjal range includes Udhampure, and Rajouri and Poonch, which border Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir. Poonch also connects with south Kashmir and Shopian through the Mughal Road, though, in winters, the road remains shut for weeks due to snow.
At present, of 37 assembly seats in the Jammu division, 15 are located in Chenab and Pir Panjal Range. The number of seats could change after the delimitation that will submit its report before March, but the two regions continue to be strong bastions of Muslim voters in Jammu.
Traditionally, the NC and later, the Congress, have been winning seats from the two regions. After 2002, when the PDP emerged on the scene, many voters supported it, too.
Since October, the two regions have witnessed a spurt in political activity by all parties except the BJP. PDP president Mehbooba Mufti was the first to tour the regions and address gatherings. However, it is Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad who has attracted attention in the two hilly regions.
He has made the right noises for the restoration of statehood, protection of jobs, land and business for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. He has maintained a balanced tone on the restoration of Article 370. The Congress leader has addressed impressive rallies in his hometown Bhaderwah in Doda and other places in the two regions. He has also held roadshows attracting sizeable crowds.
Azad's acivities have fuelled speculation that he is likely to float a new party. On December 5, he said he has ‘no intention’ to float a new party but ‘cannot predict the future in politics'. His increasing political outreach to people and the Congress supporters have come in the wake of revolt against JKPCC chief G.A. Mir by 20 Congress leaders and Azad loyalists in J&K. In their resignation letter, they alleged that under Mir's presidentship, Congress is heading towards a disastrous situation. More than 200 top Congress leaders, including former ministers, MLAs, MLCs, PCC office bearers, have left the party. They alleged that the party has performed poorly in all elections in J&K from Lok Sabha to District Development Council (DDC) polls. The disgruntled leaders, in their resignation letter, said they were not provided with an audience with the top leadership of the party to apprise them of the situation despite several attempts. Sources said the resignations have been taken seriously by the Congress top leadership, and efforts to address the grievances of the JK leaders are underway. Azad, according to sources, is feeling sidelined by the Congress top brass after his term as Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha ended. He wants to leverage the response from the people to his outreach in Jammu to send a message to the party leadership that he still commands influence on people and cannot be sidelined.
According to sources, Congress does not find Azad, with over 40 years of political experience, useful in the current polarised atmosphere in the country.
However, the support he commands in J&K, especially in Jammu region among both the Muslims and the Hindus, has emboldened him. Azad sees an opportunity in J&K where the political situation has changed drastically after the removal of Article 370. Many Congress supporters and leaders in J&K are rallying behind him due to his stature and experience. They believe that he can lead the party better than others and can turn it into a force to reckon with in Jammu.
The impressive rallies that Azad has attracted in Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal are due to the growing political, economic and religious insecurity in the two regions after the reading down of Article 370, much like Kashmir. On November 29, NC vice-president Omar Abdullah criticised Azad for calling the demand for the restoration of Article 370 futile at a rally in Kishtwar. On December 5, Azad responded by saying he raised a voice in the Parliament against the abrogation of Article 370.
"My stand has been a consistent voice over there (in the Parliament) against this move,'' he said. "However, I believe we should focus on securing our land and job. The matter about the abrogation of the Article is sub-judice, hence no use speaking on it.”
Azad supporters, according to sources, want the party top brass to give him a bigger role in J&K and utilise his services to chalk out new political strategies. They say the senior politician had accomplished some challenging tasks assigned to him by the party high command in the past, especially, in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
If Congress continues to sideline him, he might chart a new political course. It could be a big test despite the apparent support he commands, as he has won only one of the three elections he has contested from J&K. His maiden Lok Sabha contest in 2014 against BJP leader Jitender Singh ended in defeat by 60,976 votes. In the 1977 assembly elections, he lost his security deposit against NC, securing only 959 votes from the Inderwal constituency in Doda.
His only election victory was in 2005 when he won the assembly seats from Bhaderwah, and became the chief minister of the PDP-Congress alliance, before being forced to resign by the PDP due to the Amarnath land agitation.
