Thirty-year-old Tejashwi Yadav is fighting the biggest battle of his life. From the opposition side, he is the main face to take on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (69), the three time chief minister, who has established his credentials as susashan babu (development man). Yadav is putting up a spirited fight against the veteran politician who is backed by the BJP's massive poll machinery and support base.
In a month from now, Bihar will go to three-phased Assembly polls scheduled to start on October 28. The elections have many first to it. Being held under the shadow of COVID-19, with massive arrangements in place, the elections will be watched by the world. This will also be the first assembly elections to be held where Lalu Prasad Yadav will not be campaigning as he is undergoing imprisonment in the fodder scam.
The ruling NDA allies have broadly entered into a seat sharing arrangement. While the JD(U) and the BJP have already held talks, the Chirag Paswan-led LJP was playing hardball. However, he is expected to reach an understanding with the NDA parties soon. The grouping also got a new ally—Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM—which broke away from the RJD-led grand alliance. The outcome of the Bihar elections is keenly watched as the BJP could not win the state in 2015, like Delhi. This year also, the BJP could not wrest Delhi from Arvind Kejriwal's AAP. Winning Bihar will be of key importance to the saffron party.
As the elections are held under the shadow of COVID-19, and the state is grappling with issue of reverse migration and floods, the election campaign is yet to pick up in an otherwise politically vibrant state. That was one of the reasons why death of Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput's death was used by all parties as an emotive issue to drum up support.
The campaign is expected to be low key. The government guidelines, which have come into force from September 21, permit gathering of 100 people. This will allow campaigning with fewer gatherings, but much focus will be on virtual rallies.
The undercurrent of the 2020 Bihar elections is the generational change that the state politics maybe looking forward to. Veteran Lalu Prasad is represented by his youngest son and political heir Tejashwi, while Ram Vilas Paswan has also passed the reins of his party to Chirag. Currently, senior Paswan is unwell and is undergoing treatment in a hospital in Delhi. Chirag is vying for space, being a youth leader. He has already given a slogan of Bihari First.
RJD veteran Raghuvansh Prasad Singh passed away on September 13. Another state leader Sharad Yadav, whose name a few months back was floated to become the main face of grand alliance in order to keep the allies intact, too, is in hospital owing to poor health.
The issue of generational change had hit the grand alliance the most. Jitan Ram Manjhi left the grouping as he was not willing to accept Tejashwi Yadav's leadership. Another ally, Upendra Kushwaha-led RLSP, too, has served ultimatum to Yadav on similar issues. Yadav has been recalcitrant, willing to lose allies than let anyone question his leadership as the chief ministerial face.
Though generational shift is often marketed as a main political battle theme, its efficiency to influence the election outcome is not fully proven.
The RJD with its allies like the Congress and other smaller parties are yet to arrive at any seat sharing settlement. The biggest addition to the RJD-Congress combine will be the Left parties which have pockets of influence in the state. The CPI (ML) had won three seats in 2015, when the state was divided between the RJD-JD(U) on one side and BJP-LJP on the other.
In the 243-member assembly, the RJD has been the largest party with 82 seats, followed by JD(U) which had won 73 seats. Both of them had contested together in 2015. The BJP had won 53 seats, Congress 27, RLSP 2, LJP 2 and HAM 1.
Yadav is raising unemployment, loss of livelihood and distress caused by COVID-19 and floods as the main issues in the state. He is aiming to build up on the anti-incumbency factor.
The JD(U)-BJP alliance is focussing on development as its main theme with Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar as its two electoral mascots. The alliance is showcasing its work done in the last 15 years, in contrast with the perceived lawlessness during Lalu's 15-year-rule.
In Bihar political battle, there are many new and relatively new political players who would be trying their luck, with each catering to a particular caste or social group. Assadudin Owaisi-led AIMIM will be contesting on some seats in the Seemanchal region which has nearly 30 minority dominated seats.
Also in the poll fray will be Chandrashekhar Azad's newly launched Azad Samaj Party, former Union minister Yashwant Sinha's new political outfit and the Pappu Yadav's party.
