Thanks to COVID-19 spikes, India could overtake UK tally in less than 5 days

India surpassed Italy and then Spain in less than 24 hours

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On May 17, when India registered 4,987 cases of the coronavirus in less than 24 hours, it was considered a record spike, up from 3,967 cases recorded on May 15. However, on May 19, India registered 5,242 cases to bring the total coronavirus tally to 1 lakh; with 5,611 cases on May 20, 6,654 cases on May 23, 6,767 cases on May 24, and 6,977 cases on May 25, India continued on an upward trajectory.  As of June 3, India's coronavirus tally reached the 2 lakh mark—that is, close to 1 lakh new cases were detected in less than 15 days

As of June 6, with a 24-hour spike of 9,887 cases and 294 deaths, India raced past Spain on Saturday to become the fifth worst-hit nation by the COVID-19 pandemic. India's coronavirus tally is now at 2,36,657 and the death toll at 6,642. 

India surpassed Italy and then Spain in less than 24 hours to reach the grim milestone. Now, only the US, Brazil, Russia and the UK are ahead of it.

However, with the current rate of transmission, India is not too far away. The UK, considered one of the worst hit countries by the coronavirus, has 2,76,294 cases, that is around 40,000 cases more than India. With 8,171 cases on May 2, 9,304 cases on May 4, 9,394 cases on May 5 and 9,887 cases on May 6, India averaged 8,919 cases in the week starting June 1. 

That means, as per THE WEEK estimates, in less than five days, India could outstrip the UK in the total coronavirus tally (expecting the UK numbers to remain stable).

State-wise coronavirus cases tally (Central government figures)

Maharashtra: 80,229

Tamil Nadu: 28,694

Delhi: 26,334

Gujarat: 19,094

Rajasthan: 10,084

Uttar Pradesh: 9,733

Madhya Pradesh: 8,996

West Bengal: 7,303

Karnataka: 4,835

Bihar: 4,596

Andhra Pradesh: 4,303

Haryana: 3,597

Jammu and Kashmir: 3,324

Telangana: 3,290

Odisha: 2,608

Punjab: 2,461

Assam: 2,153

Kerala: 1,699

Jharkhand: 881

State-wise highest deaths (Central government figures)

Maharashtra: 2,849

Gujarat: 1,190

Delhi: 708

Madhya Pradesh: 384

West Bengal: 366

Uttar Pradesh: 257

Tamil Nadu: 232

Coronavirus tally the wrong figure to consider, says Centre

The Union Health Ministry has repeatedly held that it is wrong to just look at the total number of cases, as the population of countries also should be taken into account. About 14 countries with a cumulative population almost equal to that of India have reported 55.2 times more COVID-19 deaths, according to Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal.

In terms of the death toll, the US tops the global tally with more than 1.05 lakh fatalities, while India does not figure among the top ten countries on this parameter.

"Our COVID-19 fatality rate of 2.82 per cent and amongst the lowest in the world, compared to a global fatality rate of 6.13 per cent. We have been able to achieve this due to timely identification of cases and proper clinical management," Agarwal said. He also said that India's COVID-19 case fatality rate per lakh population is 0.41 per cent as against 4.9 per cent globally which is also amongst the lowest in the world.