After lockdown, COVID-19 cases will start declining: Maharashtra health commissioner

On April 5, 26 new COVID-19 cases were reported, taking the state's tally to 661

cleaning-floor-dadar-covid19-scare-mumbai-PTI Mumbai: Residents clean the floor at Shivneri building as a preventive measure against the coronavirus pandemic, during a nationwide lockdown, at Dadar in Mumbai, Tuesday, March 31, 2020 | PTI

On April 5, 26 new COVID-19 cases were reported in Maharashtra, taking the state's tally to 661. The day before, the state recorded 145 cases, which was the highest rise in a single day. In Mumbai, the cases rose to 377 and fatalities 22. Speaking to THE WEEK, Dr Anup Kumar Yadav, commissioner, (Family Welfare), and director, National Health Mission, Maharashtra, explained how the authorities plan to contain the transmission. Excerpts:

What is your analysis of the COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra?

Though the number of cases is increasing in the state, it is still not an exponential increase. The rate of increase in the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the state is still much slower as compared to other cities across the globe. The state government has taken appropriate measures at appropriate times. We have even partially closed mass gatherings, schools and gyms. We have also been doing regular screenings. We are confident that the situation will be contained in the near future.

Dharavi witnessed its fifth coronavirus positive case on April 4...

Density of this area is a major concern for us because, with COVID-19, there is a pressing need to maintain social distancing. But here, it is not possible to a large extent. So, we have adopted the cluster containment approach by which we have gone from house-to-house to undertake screening and testing and have checked the entire area even when one positive case was first found. Every household is being surveyed by a team of two people, and high-risk contacts are being isolated. As of now, this approach is working fine.

But, will we be able to successfully contain the transmission in Dharavi, Worli, Koliwada and other such areas with high-population densities?

The situation would've been different, had there been no lockdown. But now, we will be able to contain it.

What after April 15?

The movement should be minimal because the incubation period is 14 days and right now, we have completed around one week of lockdown. So, after the lockdown, if people continue to remain cooped inside their homes for the next 14 days, it will be great to stop the transmission. One week of extra lockdown will work in our favour.

Why did the authorities suddenly decide to keep the antibody-based rapid test on hold?

Initially, there was a plan to introduce this test in Maharashtra but we faced some technical issues and so, decided to defer it. Also, in Maharashtra, we do not require it as we have enough number of testing laboratories already. We have 13 government labs and 10 private labs.

Nurses in the state, especially in remote district hospitals, are not able to access the Personal Protective Equipment.

Everybody is getting it. Any person who is dealing directly with a COVID-19 patient, should be given the PPE and the state government is doing its best to make sure this is implemented on the ground.

A few countries and also some states in India such as Rajasthan made the names of COVID-19 patients public, so as to encourage those who came in contact with them to come forward and get tested.

Unfortunately, we cannot do this in our state or the country because of the inherent social stigma attached to diseases. People who test positive for the novel coronavirus, fear if their names are revealed they would be subjected to social exclusion as we have seen happening in many places in India. So, as of now, it is better that Maharashtra does not reveal the identities of COVID-19 positive patients.

Pune and Mumbai are hotspots for COVID-19. When will this change?

It is a natural progression of the COVID-19 disease that it goes on an increasing tendency initially because it is an infectious disease. One person may be infecting three others on an average at one time. So, the escalation goes on a rapid rate. In Maharashtra, we are on a good footing in comparison to other nations and their cities because the numbers are growing steadily but not exponentially. Pune is already under control. Yes, in Mumbai, the numbers are increasing but we are not worried. We believe that after the total lockdown period is over, the numbers will start declining.

Any more COVID-19 positive cases expected from the Tablighi Jamaat?

Whatever list we have got from the Union government, we have screened and tested all of them. The action as per protocol has been taken and those positive are being treated while the others have been institutional quarantined.