The honeymoon is officially over. And, Saudi Arabia is likely to be first nation to feel the chill of Delhi. With Saudi Arabia choosing to soften its stance towards Pakistan and calling a meeting of foreign ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in April to discuss Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act, the wooing is certainly likely to be over.
While a statement from the OIC is not likely to have an impact on India’s position—it has happened before—what makes the move for a meet solely aimed against India significant is that these countries have been personally courted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And any change in their stance will be viewed as a failure of the Modi charm.
So far, the Modi charm had worked. Removal of Article 370 and passage of CAA have both had little or no impact on India’s standing in the world. Barring a sharp reaction from the UN and UN human rights commissioner Michele Bachelet, who expressed concern over the CAA, terming it “fundamentally discriminatory”, India has escaped much public censure in CAA issue.
There has been a growing unease over the continuing clampdown in Kashmir, reflected by a resolution introduced in the US Congress by Indian American Pramila Jayapal condemning “the human rights violation’’ in Kashmir; however, this criticism is likely to be contained. With an exception of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s rather nuanced statement on Kashmir when she came to India, and Finland Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto voicing his concern on his visit in November, the international community has remained largely silent on Kashmir.
The Arab world has also been restrained over Kashmir. The UAE and Saudi Arabia had refrained so far from being moved by Pakistan’s attempts to draw them into taking sides on Kashmir. The removal of Article 370 was met with muted response from the Arab world (except for Turkey, which has remained away from the Modi hug diplomacy)—a major diplomatic coup for India.
However, with Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad's attempt to cobble another Islamic block with Turkey and Iran at the Kuala Lumpur conference, things have changed. Mahathir, who has not been easily swayed by the Modi charm, has been one of the few leaders in Asia to speak out against the CAA.
At the sidelines of the Kuala Lumpur conference, he asked, “People are dying because of this law. Why is there a necessity to do this when all the while, for 70 years, they have lived together as citizens without any problem’’.
Mohammad is not the first leader to speak out against the CAA. Bangladesh foreign minister, Abdul Momen, while officially maintaining that the citizenship law is an internal issue, has come out to say that any “uncertainty’’ will affect the neighbouring countries. The CAA, which aims to give refuge to minorities in Afghanistan and Bangladesh, is certainly going to reduce the warmth of the relationship between both the countries.
The cancelling of the Bangladesh foreign minister’s visit to India as well as the routine meeting to share water data, indicate that while Bangladesh may be publicly saying that India is their “Number 1 friend’’, privately there are concerns. There has also been a drastic drop in the number of Bangladesh visitors to India. A report in the Dhaka Tribune claims that there is a 50 per cent drop from Bangladesh through the Hili Immigration Check Post in South Dinajpur, West Bengal. Keeping up the warmth of the relationship will certainly be a challenge for South Block in the next few months, especially as China and Pakistan wait in the wings.
There have been individuals taking a public stand against the CAA. Terming the citizenship law "wrong", Jagmeet Singh, an Indian origin New Democratic Party Leader in Canada, urged governments to work to bring people together. Singh, who is not a favourite of the Indian government, as he supported Khalistan, might be dismissed as such.
Three Presidential candidates in America have also come out against the CAA. "The US and India have an important partnership—but our partnership can only succeed if it is rooted in honest dialogue and shared religious pluralism, democracy, and human rights," tweeted Elizabeth Warren. Bernie Sanders has also come in support of Jayapal. Turns out, India will need to repair its differences with the Democrats. The sooner, the better.
It will not be easy for the South Block to turn the tide on the concern that the international community has over the continued detention in Kashmir as well as the undue force with the way spontaneous protests have been handled by the government. The expulsions of Jakob Lindenthal, a German student at IIT Madras, as well as the Norwegian tourist Janne-Mette Johansson for participating in an anti-CAA protest are bound to have an impact. Both Germany and Norway have been rather uneasy about Modi’s muscular policy.
Add to it the shutdown of internet in New Delhi for a few hours as well as across Uttar Pradesh. In addition, foreign minister S. Jaishankar cancelled a meeting with the US Congressional committee due to Jayapal's presence. The message is clear: India will not tolerate any criticism.
Unlike Article 370 as well as Pulwama and Balakot incidents, after which diplomats in Delhi were briefed about India’s position, there has been no such reach out in the case of CAA. A similar exercise was also done when the Ayodhya verdict was delivered. India is unlikely to lose friends, it certainly would not lead to any negative impact on its position in the world; however, what it would have lost is goodwill and certainly, credibility.
Till now, India had been the beacon of liberal values in the subcontinent. But the continued lockdown in Kashmir and the CAA have cast a shadow on this image. It might not affect India’s global position, but diplomats across the world will have to find a way to battle the unease that many countries are feeling. The South Block will have to do a lot of firefighting.
