Modi defence 2.0: Strengthening and modernisation to be key challenges

Modi's biggest worry would be Indian Air Force's depleting fleet of combat jets

Defence 01 (2) In last year's budget, defence sector got a modest increase of 7.81 per cent | File

Amidst growing challenge from Pakistan and China in the neighbourhood, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to decide on several crucial defence projects in his second innings. 

Returning to power, Modi's biggest worry would be Indian Air Force (IAF)'s depleting fleet of combat jets. Little has been done to improve IAF's depleting combat strength, despite the Rafale contract and upcoming production plan for LCA Tejas. The world's fourth largest air force, which had a strength of 42 squadrons of fighter jets in 2002, will be down to 28 by 2020, and further down to 19 by 2042, if the government does not speed up, according to an internal estimate of the IAF. The process of acquiring 104 fighter jets is still in its early stages. 

Defence analysts believe that the IAF has lost the edge which it had two decades ago during the Kargil conflict. Thanks to India's strong air defence then, Pakistan did not even muster courage to carry out an airstrike on Indian soil. Contrast this to what happened on February 27 this year, a day after IAF's strike in Balakot, when Pakistani jets made an attempt to enter the Indian airspace. 

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"Every IAF (officer) would want to have the ability to penetrate into enemy's airspace at will, and to impose heavy cost on the enemy, preventing him to retaliate," a senior official said. 

The stronger BJP government this time is expected to address the issue quickly, as the official believes that short-term strategic requirement needs urgent hearing. "Numerical superiority will not always work. We need to create assets that have deterrent value," the official added. The IAF has been maintaining that once Rafale fighter jets would be inducted into the fleet, it would be a “game-changer” in the subcontinent. India would have significantly better air defence capability than its “regional adversaries”. 

Besides fighter jets, critical and important defence programmes such as mid-air refueller and IAF's 1960s vintage Avro transport aircraft are still hanging in the balance. No progress has been made in the Army's need for Light Utility Helicopters, a lifeline for soldiers posted at the world’s highest battlefield—the inhospitable Siachen Glacier of the Himalayas. The acquisition process went through three cancellations, the last being in 2014. The Navy is also struggling with shortage of its helicopter fleet. 

After air assets, submarines are another key issue which the Modi government is expected to address. The strength of Indian Navy's submarine fleet has dwindled from a total of 21 submarines in the 1980s to 15 conventional submarines, plus one homemade Arihant-class nuclear submarine and one Russian Akula-class submarine operating on lease. To make matters worse, the Indian navy is operating with half of its submarine fleet strength as most of the vessels are in the last leg of their active operational life and are on mid-life upgrades. The matter raises serious concerns when it is compared to China, which has a strength of 65 subs. 

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The Navy needs at least 24 submarines to meet the 30-year submarine building plan, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security in 1999, months after the Kargil conflict. The approved acquisition programme was divided into three sections: first, six Scorpene submarines to be procured under the Project 75; second, additional six more submarines to be built under Project 75 India, and third, remaining 12 to be built indigenously. 

Experts also believe that despite the Union government continuing to put the country's defence preparedness on the list of their top priorities, budget constraints have always stuck out like a sore thumb. In last year's budget, defence sector got a modest increase of 7.81 per cent. In the year 2018-19, India spent only 1.57 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for defence, the lowest since the 1962 war with China. This is when China allocated 3 per cent and Pakistan spends 3.5 per cent of their GDP on defence. While India has 1.25 soldiers per 1,000 people, China has 2.23 and Pakistan 4.25. 

The Standing Committee on Defence, in its report tabled in Parliament early this year had highlighted that the budgetary allocations have not been enough for Army’s modernisation programme. The report said that the allocation was insufficient to equip itself for a ‘two-front war’. The deposition of the vice chief of Army staff before a parliamentary panel in March last year exposed the state of modernisation in defence, as he claimed that 78 per cent of the Army's weaponry is vintage. 

One of the main reasons for slow modernisation is because a major chunk of the defence allocation would be set aside to pay salaries and pensions. That said, there is a review underway in the Army with an attempt to cut flab and make it lean and mean. However, Army chief General Bipin Rawat's order to undertake four studies to reorganise the Army are yet to be approved by the ministry. 

The newbies—special forces and cyber and space units—which will function under the Integrated Defence Staff, is an important step in the integration of the three forces. Experts feel that integration between the three forces would play an important role in reducing administrative costs. Indian military has 17 single-service command (Army-7, IAF-7 and Navy-3). There has been a lot of discussions on creating theatre commands as some believe that having so many separate commands is a waste of resouces and infrastructure. 

Besides modernisation, the Modi government will also have to re-look into its Make in India in defence sector. Despite tall claims, no major contract under the Make in India category has really taken off. The critical defence procurements were met through off-the-shelf category with no element of transfer of technology. 

"Though bold decisions were taken in past years to meet the defence preparedness, private sector was not given the required push, despite tall claims of promoting indigenous defence industry under the Make in India theme," said Laxman Behra, research fellow at IDSA. However, he believes that the initiatives taken in the past five years will gradually show results.