EXCLUSIVE: NCP's Shankersinh Vaghela predicts 140-160 seats for BJP

Shankersinh Vaghela was much senior to Narendra Modi in the RSS. He once wielded more power in Gujarat than Modi. Today, one is being projected by the BJP as the prime ministerial candidate for a second term, while the other is uniting the opposition against the saffron party.Seventy-eight-year-old Vaghela has seen and done it all. He rebelled against the BJP in 1995 in Gujarat, went on to become the chief minister of the state after setting up his own outfit, merged the party with the Congress, held the post of Gujarat Congress president, became a Union minister, quit the Congress and then finally joined the NCP.

Old timers remember Modi riding pillion on Vaghela's bike. Vaghela, who used to match Modi's oratory skills and had the charisma to attract large crowds, became a vocal critic of Modi ever since the former rebelled against the BJP. In an exclusive interview to THE WEEK in his palatial bungalow spread over several acres of land in Gandhinagar, the veteran politician talks about the opposition, the BJP, his personal agenda, about his son, and more importantly Modi. Excerpts:

What role do you play in 2019 Lok Sabha elections?

Since the past six months, I have traveled to about nine states to unite anti-BJP forces. During my travels, I got a sense that they felt that it would be nice if I was with some party. I had quit the Congress and there was no logic in going back. So I chose the NCP, Maa nahi toh maasi (they all stand for the same).

My efforts are to ensure that talks are held with the Congress and there are no watertight compartments. Whether it is the TMC, DMK or Chadrababu Naidu's party, they should not become so opposed to each other that they can't come together post polls. In Kerala, the CPM and the Congress will fight each other, but after elections, they will have to come together as anti-BJP forces.

My role is to unite the anti-BJP forces and will continue to be same.

There are rumours that you were under pressure to contest the elections

Yes, there was pressure. This (Gandhinagar) is basically my home constituency. In the past, I have won with a margin of over four lakh votes as a BJP candidate. I vacated the seat for Atal Bihari Vajpayee and then moved to Godhra.

After it was declared that Amit Shah is to contest from Gandhinagar, people within the BJP (especially Patidars), who do not like this leadership, had pressurised me saying if I take on Shah, they will openly join in my election campaign. Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti leaders have also said they would support my campaign.

Basically, Gandhinagar is a BJP seat. However, it can't be 100 per cent every time. Fortunes can change. If we see assembly wise, the BJP is ahead in three seats and in the remaining four seats, the Congress can have an advantage. They said that if I took on Shah, then it can be a challenge of sorts.

People who have been sidelined in the BJP too have offered support. The Congressmen would have obviously supported if there was a seat sharing agreement with the NCP.

Why have you decided to stay away from contesting?

I could have contested elections from the Congress as well. Now, if I decide to contest, it

would have given an impression that I joined the NCP to fight elections. My target today or tomorrow is the state assembly.

There has to be an anti-BJP government at the Centre. I can guarantee you that there won't be a repeat of 2014 this time. Start from Tamil Nadu. After Jayalalithaa's death, the AIADMK is fragmented. Out of the 39 seats, it won't be a surprise if the DMK and the Congress together win 35 seats. In Kerala, the CPM and the Congress will fight it out. The BJP might win one seat. Five states—Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Rajasthan—which were with the BJP in 2014 are now with the Congress. This is a loss for the BJP. In West Bengal, the BJP might win a maximum of 5 to 6 seats. The CPM is a staunch anti-BJP party and so is Mamata Banerjee. Besides, Modi also faces anti-incumbency just like Manmohan Singh did in the past.

In Maharashtra, if the notion that Sharad Pawar will be the prime minister becomes popular, then the NCP-Congress combine may win up to 35 seats. I see the BJP's tally between 140 and 160.

What are the major issues in this election?

The issue will be truth against lies. You (Modi) had said you will give jobs, you had said 'no' to GST. Where did you bring demonetisation from? You had also promised to act strict against Pakistan. Forget about 60 years of the Congress, tell me, what has been done in the past five years. In fact, there is nothing to say. The slogans like chaiwala, chowkidar, namumkin mumkin hai hardly involves any thinking.

After Hindus died in Godhra carnage, Muslims were killed. Wasn't it the responsibility of the then Gujarat government and the Centre to protect them (Muslims)? Why did it happen? In Akshardham attack, “two persons” came, and thirty-seven people lost their lives. Why were they not caught alive? Why do cases do not stand in the courts of law? There were 23 fake encounters. These encounters stopped when policemen went behind the bars. It is “man eater” government.

The government takes credits for things they don't deserve. Say for example the surgical strike in Pakistan. Strike is the Army's daily business and it should not used for political marketing. You say that 200 people were killed in Balakot. Who are you to make such statements?

Why was there an intelligence lapse in Pulwama? They knew that Army was to pass. You should have airlifted them. If you are 'chowkidar' and we are safe under you, then where did the RDX come from? He (Modi) says that ghar mai ghus ke maroonga. Does he go to do that? It is the Army that goes. The prime minister will change, but the Army is a permanent feature.

The BJP cannot digest the truth and so anyone who speaks the truth becomes anti-national. We do not want your certificate. We do not mind even if you call us anti-national. Everyone knows how much rashtra bhakti you have.

Will Balakot strike have an impact on the results?

The impact of marketing will remain. If you have watched a movie about valor, it is bound to affect you. If you watch a tragedy, it will have an impact on you. But these emotions won't last long.

In Balakot,10 trees were uprooted and one crow was found (chuckles). Substantiate with evidence your claim that 200 people were killed in the strike.

What will be the decisive factor in this election?

Mostly, youth and women. In 2014 the youth saw future. Now, after five years they realized that their future is bleak. The BJP's future became bright as they came to power for five years. As far as women are concerned, there is no security.

You project around 140-160 seats for the BJP. However, the anti-BJP alliance hasn't been properly materialised. Your comments.

The question is not about alliance. Our democracy is not on presidential pattern. It is the members of parliament who choose the prime minister. Whether they have alliance or not, the DMK, Chandrababu Naidu, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, AkhileshYadav and the NCP will unite and form the government. Can the the BJP and the CPM be together? Both the CPM and the Congress will lend support for anti-BJP front. In Uttar Pradesh, SP and BSP have united and the Congress and BJP are non-entities there.

My efforts is that vulgar allegations are not leveled so that you don't feel shy to sit together.

Is Rahul Gandhi acceptable as PM candidate to non-BJP forces?

Rahul Gandhi has said he is not in the race to become the prime minister. He has said this publicly six months ago. He is in no hurry to become the prime minister. He is now a seasoned politician.

You are in NCP? Your son Mahendrasinh Vaghela is likely to join the BJP. How does it look?

This is a hypothetical question. In our scheme of things, a son is free to do whatever he feels. He is mature. He has been a two-time MLA. But eyebrows are raised when it goes the other way. So I had to categorically tell him not to join the BJP. He is an obedient son.

BJP did not give tickets to Murli Manohar Joshi and L. K. Advani. Your comments on it

You (Modi and BJP) have done political murder of Joshi, Advani and Kalraj Mishra. It is because of their efforts you are where you are today. They nurtured you. The “political murder” is because they do not follow you. There is only one place where is age is welcomed. Old wine, old healer and old leader is good. He should be physically and mentally fit. That's all. At what age did Morarji Desai become the prime minister? Advaniji is physically fit and Joshi is active, but you snatched away Varanasi seat. Was Mishra a problem? They are being sidelined with careful planning.

Will you be still active in Lok Sabha elections of 2024?

My target is state assembly. In 2019, there will be anti-BJP government at the Centre. Today's BJP government in Gujarat is a non-entity. Retired bureaucrats run the government. The BJP is full of Congress leaders. The saffron party's discipline is nowhere to be seen. There is major discontent within the BJP in Gujarat. It can catch fire if there is “wind”.

Are you seeing yourself as the next governor of Gujarat or the chief minister?

I am not going to get into that. The elections might happen before the full term.

Do you think you made a mistake twice? First when you rebelled in 1995 against the BJP and when you quit the Congress in 2017. Had you not acted as you did, Narendra Modi's status would not have risen!

People make a mistake by linking the decisions to power. Had I been in the BJP, I would have been in power. But nothing can be done at the cost of self-respect. I had to only say ji (yes) and that is not in my nature. My DNA will never allow me to say 'yes' to anything wrong.

Had I been in the Congress, we would have formed the government after 2017 assembly elections in Gujarat. We would have got the majority. But I chose self-respect over power, both in the BJP and in the Congress.

If you were to blame one person for the poor state of affairs in the Gujarat Congress, who would that be?

It is the system in the party. An individual may come and go. They have to play their roles. The parties can benefit or suffer a loss because of it. Take for example, the BJP benefited because of Vajpayee, and the Congress because of Indira Gandhi.