In a major setback to the Congress-JD(S) coalition government in Karnataka, two independent MLAs have withdrawn their support to the state government.
Mulabagilu MLA H. Nagesh and Ranebennur MLA and former minister R. Shankar sent a letter to Governor Vajubhai Vala, announcing their withdrawal of support to the H.D. Kumaraswamy-led government on Tuesday. This has lead to further speculation over the stability of the government, as the alliance partners have alleged that the BJP is trying to poach their MLAs in a bid to unseat the government.
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Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy was, however, quick to dismiss any threat to his government saying: "I know my strength. My government is stable."
"What is going to happen if two independents declare support to the BJP? What will be the numbers? I am totally relaxed," the chief minister further said.
In the last couple of days, the state witnessed high drama after the BJP legislators, who went to Delhi last Thursday to attend the party's national council meet, chose to stay put in a resort in Gurugram. Simultaneously, a few Congress MLAs led by former minister Ramesh Jarkiholi landed in a Powai-based hotel in Mumbai.
The legislators who were denied a cabinet berth during the recent cabinet expansion and those dropped from the cabinet are said to be leaning towards the saffron party. Fearing another 'Operation Kamala' (Operation Lotus) by the BJP, the JD(S), too, has threatened to poach the saffron party's legislators. Meanwhile, the Congress leaders are quietly trying to reach out to their "missing" MLAs.
A major political turmoil has erupted in the state with both the coalition partners and the rival BJP trading charges of poaching each other.
State BJP president B. S. Yeddyurappa claims that his party is busy focussing on the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, and that they would happily work as the opposition party for the next four and a half years. However, the dynamics seems to have changed for the BJP, which recently lost three major states—Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. This time, Yeddyurappa's effort to whip up a majority seems to have the support of the central leadership.
The Congress party, which used to downplay the rebellion, now admits that some of their MLAs are in Mumbai. Water resources minister and Congress's troubleshooter D.K. Shivakumar, who is attending an event at Aurangabad, is most likely to land in Mumbai to meet the disgruntled MLAs.
While the Congress suspects that its MLAs are being hosted by the Maharashtra state BJP unit, Ram Shinde, a cabinet minister, has claimed that a BJP government would be installed in Karnataka in a couple of days.
The independent MLAs withdrawing support to the coalition government is also pointing to the fact that the BJP has, perhaps, managed to achieve its target.
"My support to the coalition government was to provide a good and stable government, which has utterly failed. So, I have decided to go with the BJP to install a stable government," said Nagesh.
"Today is Makar Sankranti, and on this day we want a change in the government. The government should be efficient, so I am withdrawing my support," said Shankar, who was dropped from the cabinet recently.
Gokak MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi, who was replaced with his brother Satish Jarkiholi, is leading the Congress rebellion and has landed in Mumbai along with his another brother and BJP MLA from Arabhavi Balachandra Jarkiholi. The brothers now claim to have the support of at least six to eight MLAs.
On the other hand, the MLAs from Ballari district, too, are in revolt mode. Ballari rural MLA B. Nagendra is mobilising support for the BJP, after the Congress party chose to ignore him and inducted E. Tukaram into the cabinet.
As the political drama continues, the big question that remains is whether the BJP with 104 seats (nine short of majority) will stake claim to form the government?
Going by the numbers, it is clear that the BJP cannot wrest power unless one-third of Congress MLAs (27 members) cross over to the saffron party. The other option which the BJP seems to be exploring is to reduce the coalition into a minority government. For that, the BJP has to lure at least 13 disgruntled Congress MLAs to resign so that the total strength of the house will reduce to 211. With the support of two independents, the BJP will then have a clear majority (106).
The BJP is aware that it can tap into only those constituencies which have a sizeable Lingayat and/or Valmiki (scheduled tribe) votes. Also, the dissidents would quit only if they are confident of winning back the seat on a BJP ticket and if the BJP can promise to fund their re-election and offer a cabinet berth.
Incidentally, a long list of Congress MLAs fits the BJP's bill. The legislators to watch out for are Ramesh Jarkiholi (Gokak), Shrimanta Patil (Kagavada), Mahesh Kumatalli (Athani), B.C. Patil (Hirekerur), R. Shankar (Ranebennur), Dr Umesh Jadhav (Chincholli), Pratapgouda Patil (Maski), Anand Singh (Vijayanagara, Hospete), G.N. Ganesh (Kampli), B. Nagendra (Ballari rural), B.K. Sangamesh (Bhadravari) and Bhima Nayak (Hagaribommanahalli).
