India reducing its purchase of Russian oil has dealt a heavy blow to Russia. After US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to a trade agreement, Indian oil refiners significantly reduced their purchase of Russian crude oil.
New Delhi had accounted for about 38 per cent of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports, according to finam.ru.
By March, the imports will reportedly be below 1 million barrels per day, with supply volumes declining to 500,000-600,000 barrels per day. In 2025, the average was about 1.7 million barrels per day.
Russian media reported that India had begun to adopt more stringent policies regarding unauthorised crude oil exports. On February 7th, the Indian Coast Guard arrested 3 crude oil tankers coming from Iran.
One political scientist who spoke to 24.tv said, "We can easily calculate the impact this has on the Russian economy. Furthermore, oil is being sold at steep discounts. While the full details are not being disclosed, the oil company Lukoil has officially requested the Russian authorities to reduce taxes, as the discount is as high as 50%."
Russia are reporetdly earning around just $27-$30 per barrel of crude oil. The price is kept as it could impact Russia’s National Welfare Fund whihc could be depleted within two to 6 months 24.tv reported.
"The situation with India has been a serious blow, but China remains the Kremlin's safety net today. The US has so far been unable to reach a constructive agreement with this country on limiting its consumption of Russian raw materials," Igor Chalenko said.
Indian oil refiners like Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries have refused to purchase Russian oil in March and April, according to a trader who spoke to Reuters.
Russian media speculate that New Delhi may rely on he united states or Venezuela for further oil imports.
EU-sanctioned Nayara Energy’s refinery in Gujarat is currently under threat of being shut down after the trade agreement came into place. Russia's state-run energy company Rosneft holds a major share in Nayara. The refinery is entirely run on Russian oil. Due to this, analysts speculate that this would increase russian politivd.
According to Kpler avbout 12 million barrels of Russian oil are currently drifting in Southeast Asia without a buyer.
Citing Kpler, Bloomberg reported that about 12 oil tankers carrying the 12 million barrels of Ural crude oil are moving in the Indian ocean.
Meanwhile, Chinese independent refineries have seen this as an opportunity. The country has increased their purchase of Ural crude oil, buying about 500,000 barrels per day in January, Polish television channel TVP World reported.
However, Chinese buyers often prefer lighter oils like ESPO or Sokol, which are supplied through the Pacific region of Russia.
Many Ural-class tankers are still enroute from the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea to Asia according to vessel tracking data. Many of the tankers list Singapore as their destination, but as demands change, their port of call may also change.
