When a 73-day stand-off between India and China at Doklam, where the borders of India, China and Bhutan meet, ended last August, the external affairs ministry claimed the dispute had been resolved. But the armed forces have been giving reports that contradicted this. In October, Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa said the forces were still deployed in the Chumbi Valley though the two sides were not in a physical face-off. Then in January, Army chief General Bipin Rawat said the time had come for India to shift focus to its northern border.
Satellite images and intelligence inputs indicate a massive build-up of the Chinese military in the area. An officer at the Army headquarters in Delhi said it was a fully fledged military complex that the Chinese had set up near the disputed site, complete with a helipad and an observation tower just 100 metres from the forward Indian post. China has increased its troops strength in Tibet as well, moving two armoured brigades close to the Chumbi Valley, which is just about 5km from the Siliguri corridor, which connects India to its northeastern states.
The Chinese have not taken back the machinery and equipment they had brought for construction of roads in Doklam. And, they seem to have a long-term plan. In fact, when asked at the time of disengagement if China would continue constructing roads in the area, Hua Chunying, spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said that a relevant construction plan in accordance with the situation on ground would be made and the Chinese border troops would “continue to station and patrol the Doklam area”.
India is well aware of the challenge, and the Army is preparing for the upcoming summer. The 33 Corps based in Sukna in West Bengal, which looks after Sikkim, has been carrying out massive defence measures, and construction on the border has been scaled up. “We are building permanent defensive structures. They should be ready by April,” said an officer in the Eastern Command. Sukhois from Bagdogra Air Force station take frequent sorties these days.
Stratfor, a US-based think tank, recently released satellite images of air-power build up on the border. After the disengagement in August, India and China have significantly enhanced their air assets on the border. On the Chinese airbases near Lhasa and Shigatse, there has been massive deployment of fighter jets, helicopters, missile systems and unmanned aerial vehicles. On the Indian side, the forward airbases of Siliguri Bagdogra and Hashimara have increased combat fleet operations manifold. “It is only a question of time until a new flashpoint on the line of actual control emerges, and as the increased activity shows, both sides will have greater capabilities to bring to bear in any future crisis,” said the Stratfor report.
Patrolling on the border has been intensified by both sides, which is the reason “there are more instances of contact between the two,” said the Army officer. In 2017, there were 417 instances of transgression by the Chinese. It was 217 the previous year.
Doklam is divided into south and north by the Torsa nullah. There are three passes in north Doklam through which the Chinese have been building roads since 2000. Only when they approached the nullah did the Royal Bhutan Army realise that the Chinese were going to claim south Doklam. The Bhutanese raised alarm, which led to the stand-off last year.
The terrain in Doklam largely favours the Indian Army. But China is actively building infrastructure on the other side. In Tuting, for instance, there is a road up to the border on the Indian side. “There is no road on the Chinese side, but they are now building one,” said the Army officer.
Lt Gen (retd) Vinod Bhatia, former director general of Military Operation and former general officer commanding of 33 Corps, said the attempts to change the status quo in Doklam was part of the Chinese army’s modus operandi to connect all passes, including the Chele La on the Jampheri Ridge. It is a security concern for India as it threatens the National Highway 3IC. Bhatia said India should chart out a focused approach to infrastructure development to counter the Chinese. “India shied away from constructing border roads till 2005. In a shift from policy the government sanctioned 73 India-China border roads to be completed by 2012. Forty six of these 73 roads are still in various stages of completion and contract,” he said.
Lt Gen (retd) S.L. Narasimhan, who was defence attaché in the Indian embassy in Beijing, said India should eliminate any existing critical deficiency. “India should continue to monitor the Line of Actual Control closely and should pay particular attention to improving the infrastructure and surveillance capabilities,” he said.
The Army has been well aware of the Chinese ploys. “We know that we have to be prepared,” Rawat said recently. “Our focus has to shift to the northern border. Too long we have been focused on the west.” In fact, the northern border has been getting attention for some time now. India and China have 14 disputed areas on the 3,500km-long LAC. In 2000, India created two mountain divisions and three years later a mountain corps solely to take on the Chinese threat. Today the Army has around 90,000 troops manning the border, including five fully fledged mountain divisions and two brigades. “However, reportedly the sanctioned money has not been allotted and the Army continues to raise and equip the accretion forces from within its own resources,” said Bhatia. “This leads to voids and hollowness.”
During the Doklam stand-off, some experts compared the strengths of the Indian and Chinese forces and concluded that the Indian Air Force had an edge over the Chinese on account of technology, terrain and training. The Indian Navy, too, enjoyed relative superiority in the Indian Ocean, and the deployment of the Army was strong enough to hold the ground. “While these assessments may stand scrutiny to an extent, the days of a linear war alone are over,” said Bhatia. “The future wars will be multi-domain wars; all elements integrated to achieve the laid-down military objectives.” Doklam, it seems, will continue to be the focal point of the power tussle between India and China.
